Overview
Today, the main themes are broad US dollar strength against major currencies and the divergence between USD/JPY and the cross-yen pairs. USD/JPY and USD/CHF are strong buys across all timeframes, while USD/CAD is a strong buy from the 15-minute chart through the daily chart. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are strong sells across all timeframes. GBP/USD, which still had a bullish daily signal in the previous report, has also turned lower, bringing the dollar-buying trend into alignment across the major pairs.
USD/JPY rose to 158.91, but all six cross-yen pairs show strong selling on the hourly chart. CHF/JPY and AUD/JPY are strong sells even on the daily chart, making it difficult to interpret USD/JPY’s rise as broad yen weakness.
Natural gas remains a strong buy across all timeframes. WTI crude and silver have turned higher on the hourly chart, but their daily signals remain bearish. Spot gold has improved to neutral on the hourly chart, while gold futures retain a strong hourly sell signal.
Short-term signals have improved for US equities and the Nikkei, while the 5-minute signals for the DAX, FTSE 100, and CAC 40 have turned bearish. The daily charts continue to diverge by region: the three European indices are strong buys, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are strong sells.
Main Changes Since the Previous Report
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USD/JPY rose from 158.11 to 158.91 and remains a strong buy across all timeframes. USD/CHF rose from 0.8206 to 0.8286, and its daily signal shifted from sell to strong buy.
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GBP/USD’s daily signal turned from strong buy to strong sell. EUR/USD lost its hourly buy and neutral daily signals, while NZD/USD shifted from neutral to strong sell on both the hourly and daily charts.
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EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY weakened from bullish hourly signals to strong hourly sells, while their daily signals retreated to neutral. CHF/JPY’s daily signal also turned from buy to strong sell.
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AUD/NZD improved to strong buy from the 5-minute chart through the hourly chart. Its daily signal remains a strong sell, however, so the Australian dollar’s strength against the New Zealand dollar is limited to the shorter timeframes.
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WTI crude rose from 84.98 to 86.78, with the hourly signal turning from strong sell to strong buy. Spot silver and silver futures also improved from strong hourly sells to strong hourly buys.
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The Nikkei rose from 60,396.00 to 61,316.00, with strong buy signals from the 5-minute chart through the hourly chart. Its daily signal improved from strong sell to sell, but has not turned bullish.
FX Market
EUR/USD — 1.1139
Strong sell across all timeframes. Moving averages and indicators are also aligned in strong sell territory. The previous hourly buy signal has disappeared. Until a short-term rebound extends to the 15-minute chart, this remains a candidate for selling into rallies.
GBP/USD — 1.3318
Strong sell across all timeframes. Unlike the previous report, the daily chart has now turned in the same direction as the shorter timeframes. The daily moving average shows a strong sell and the indicators show a sell, so short-term rebounds are unlikely to change the overall direction on their own.
USD/JPY — 158.91
Strong buy across all timeframes. The daily moving average, which was previously a buy, has strengthened to a strong buy. Moving averages and indicators are now fully aligned. When assessing a pullback, the key question is whether the 15-minute and hourly buy signals hold even if the 5-minute chart corrects.
USD/CHF — 0.8286
Strong buy across all timeframes. The daily moving average and indicators have both shifted from sell to strong buy. Alongside USD/JPY, this is one of the clearest expressions of dollar strength.
AUD/USD — 0.6865
Strong sell across all timeframes. The overall signals remain aligned, as in the previous report, and the hourly indicator has now also turned to strong sell. AUD/JPY is a strong sell across all timeframes as well, showing that Australian dollar weakness extends beyond its pairing with the US dollar.
NZD/USD — 0.5590
Strong sell across all timeframes. The hourly and daily charts, which were neutral in the previous report, are now strong sells, with moving averages and indicators all aligned. AUD/NZD shows short-term buying in the Australian dollar, highlighting the New Zealand dollar’s relative weakness against the US dollar.
USD/CAD — 1.4217
The 5-minute chart is neutral, while the 15-minute chart through the daily chart show strong buys. On the 5-minute chart, the moving average is a buy and the indicator is neutral, so the direction is less clear than on the higher timeframes. Watch whether the 5-minute chart turns higher while the 15-minute and hourly buy signals hold.
Cross-Yen Pairs and Relative Currency Strength
EUR/JPY — 176.99
Strong sell from the 5-minute chart through the hourly chart; neutral on the daily chart. On the daily chart, the moving average is a sell while the indicator is a strong buy. The previous strong hourly buy has broken down. First, watch whether selling pressure eases on the 15-minute and hourly charts.
GBP/JPY — 211.60
The 5-minute chart is a sell, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strong sells, and the daily chart is neutral. The daily chart was a strong buy previously, but its moving average has now turned to sell. A strong buy signal remains in the daily indicator, so this pair should be distinguished from CHF/JPY, where the daily chart is aligned in sell territory.
CHF/JPY — 191.80
Strong sell across all timeframes. The daily chart, which was previously a buy, has also turned lower. Together with the strong buy across all timeframes in USD/CHF, this points to franc weakness against both the US dollar and the yen.
AUD/JPY — 109.08
Strong sell across all timeframes. The hourly indicator is a sell, while moving averages remain strong sells across all timeframes. If the pair rebounds in the short term, watch whether the 15-minute and hourly charts remain bearish.
NZD/JPY — 88.83
Strong sell from the 5-minute chart through the hourly chart; neutral on the daily chart. The hourly chart was a strong buy previously, but both moving averages and indicators now point lower. The daily moving average is a sell and the indicator is neutral. The key question is whether short-term weakness extends to the daily chart.
CAD/JPY — 111.78
The 5-minute chart is neutral, while the 15-minute chart through the daily chart are strong sells. On the 5-minute chart, the moving average is a sell and the indicator is a buy. The hourly and daily sell signals are clear. Watch whether the short-term rebound improves the 15-minute chart.
EUR/GBP — 0.8364
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute and hourly charts are neutral, and the daily chart is a sell. The strong buys on the 15-minute and hourly charts in the previous report have disappeared. On the hourly chart, the moving average is a buy and the indicator is a sell. Watch whether selling pressure consistent with the daily chart extends to the hourly timeframe.
AUD/NZD — 1.2279
Strong buy from the 5-minute chart through the hourly chart; strong sell on the daily chart. Moving averages and indicators are aligned in buy territory through the hourly chart. The Australian dollar is outperforming the New Zealand dollar in the short term, but both daily moving averages and indicators remain bearish.
EUR/CHF — 0.9228
The 5-minute chart is neutral, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strong buys, and the daily chart is neutral. The daily signal has improved from sell, but the moving average is a sell while the indicator is a strong buy. The key question is whether the hourly buy continues and the daily moving average improves.
GBP/CHF — 1.1033
Strong buy across all timeframes. While GBP/USD and GBP/JPY have weakened, GBP/CHF remains bullish through the daily chart. This points to relative strength against the franc rather than broad-based strength in the pound.
Commodities
Gold — 4,049.31
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells; the hourly and daily charts are neutral. The hourly indicator has turned to strong buy, but the moving average remains a sell. To assess whether a rebound is taking hold, watch whether selling pressure eases on the 15-minute chart and the hourly moving average improves.
Gold Futures — 4,058.05
Strong sell from the 5-minute chart through the hourly chart; sell on the daily chart. The hourly indicator is a strong buy, but the moving average and overall signal remain strong sells. The daily chart has also shifted from neutral to sell, leaving futures more broadly bearish than spot gold.
Silver — 52.9650
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are neutral, the hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is a sell. The hourly moving average and indicator are aligned in buy territory. On the shorter charts, the moving average is a buy while the indicator points lower. Watch whether the hourly rebound extends to the 15-minute chart.
Silver Futures — 52.948
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are neutral, the hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is a sell. The contract has rebounded from strong sells across all timeframes in the previous report, but both the daily moving average and indicator remain bearish. Treat the hourly rebound separately from a daily trend reversal.
WTI Crude — 86.78
Strong buy from the 5-minute chart through the hourly chart; strong sell on the daily chart. The hourly direction has reversed since the previous report, and moving averages and indicators are aligned in buy territory. Watch whether the short-term recovery continues. If considering a daily trend sell, wait for the hourly buy signal to weaken.
Natural Gas — 3.325
Strong buy across all timeframes. The price is above the previous 3.242 level, and indicators remain strong buys across all timeframes. The 15-minute and hourly moving averages have softened from strong buy to buy, so on a pullback, watch whether the overall signals on both timeframes hold.
Copper — 6.2973
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell. The hourly indicator has improved to buy, but the moving average remains a strong sell. The key question is whether the hourly chart turns back to sell or short-term selling pressure eases first.
US Wheat — 599.90
The 5-minute chart is a sell, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strong buys, and the daily chart is a strong sell. The 15-minute and hourly charts have rebounded from strong sells across all timeframes in the previous report. With the daily chart still bearish, watch whether the 5-minute chart turns to buy and supports the recovery.
BTC/USD — 73,744.0
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell. The hourly indicator has turned to buy, but the moving average remains a strong sell. With the daily chart still bearish, first wait for improvement on the 15-minute chart before assessing a rebound.
Stock Indices
Dow Jones — 52,231.89
The 5-minute chart is a buy, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strong buys, and the daily chart is neutral. The 5-minute chart has turned from strong sell to buy. On the daily chart, the moving average is a strong buy while the indicator is a sell. The focus is whether buying through the hourly chart extends to the daily timeframe.
S&P 500 — 7,520.93
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is a buy, and the daily chart is a strong sell. Short-term signals have improved, but the hourly chart has softened from strong buy to buy, and its moving average is neutral. Watch whether the hourly moving average can turn back to buy to support the short-term rebound.
Nasdaq 100 — 27,740.80
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell. The hourly chart has retreated from buy to neutral. Short-term buying is clear, but the rebound has not extended as far as in the S&P 500, where the hourly chart remains a buy.
DAX — 26,525.21
The 5-minute chart is a sell, while the 15-minute chart through the daily chart are strong buys. The index was a strong buy across all timeframes in the previous report, but both moving averages and indicators on the 5-minute chart have now turned to sell. With the 15-minute strong buy intact, watch whether the short-term correction extends to that timeframe.
FTSE 100 — 10,797.06
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is a buy, and the daily chart is a strong buy. The daily strength remains, but signals have weakened from the shorter charts through the hourly chart. Before treating this as a pullback opportunity, watch whether the 15-minute chart returns to buy.
CAC 40 — 8,309.61
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is neutral, and the hourly and daily charts are strong buys. The index was a strong buy across all timeframes previously, but the shorter charts have weakened first. Watch whether the 15-minute chart improves while the hourly strong buy holds.
Nikkei 225 — 61,316.00
Strong buy from the 5-minute chart through the hourly chart; sell on the daily chart. Moving averages and indicators are aligned in buy territory from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. The daily indicator has softened from strong sell to sell, but the moving average remains bearish. A move to neutral on the daily chart would be the next sign of a broader recovery.
Strength Rankings
Strong Buy Across All Timeframes
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USD/JPY
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USD/CHF
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GBP/CHF
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Natural gas
USD/JPY and USD/CHF are strong buys across all timeframes in both the overall signal and the moving average and indicator readings.
Strong Buy from the 15-Minute Chart Through the Daily Chart
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USD/CAD
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DAX
USD/CAD is neutral on the 5-minute chart, while DAX is a sell. The higher-timeframe direction is the same, but the short-term correction is clearer in DAX.
Weakness Rankings
Strong Sell Across All Timeframes
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EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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AUD/USD
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NZD/USD
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CHF/JPY
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AUD/JPY
EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are also strong sells across all timeframes in both moving averages and indicators.
Sell Signals Aligned on the Hourly and Daily Charts
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CAD/JPY
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Gold futures
Copper and BTC/USD are strong sells on the daily chart but neutral on the hourly chart. Watch whether short-term rebounds fade and the hourly chart turns back to sell.
Trading Strategy
Pullback-Buy Candidates
USD/JPY, USD/CHF, GBP/CHF, and natural gas are aligned in buy territory through the daily chart. USD/CAD and DAX are also strong buys from the 15-minute chart upward. If prices correct in the short term, watch whether the 15-minute and hourly buy signals hold and the 5-minute chart turns higher again.
Sell-Into-Rallies Candidates
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, CHF/JPY, and AUD/JPY have clear sell signals. Holding short positions in several major pairs against the US dollar at the same time would create a concentrated exposure to dollar strength. When selecting a pair, compare the shape of the rebound and the alignment on the hourly chart rather than stacking trades with the same dollar-buying exposure.
Treat as Short-Term Rebounds
WTI crude, AUD/NZD, and the Nikkei show strong buys through the hourly chart, but their daily signals remain bearish. Silver also has a strong hourly buy and a daily sell. For short-term rebound trades, watch whether the hourly buy holds. For a sell in line with the daily direction, wait for the hourly chart to return to neutral or sell.
Key Points to Watch
For FX, the focus is whether USD/JPY can sustain its strong 15-minute and hourly buy signals in the upper 158s. Among the cross-yen pairs, where hourly strong sells are aligned, watch whether EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY can hold their neutral daily signals.
In commodities, watch whether the hourly buy signals in WTI crude and silver continue. Spot gold and gold futures have diverging hourly signals. Whether gold futures can recover to a neutral overall signal may help gauge how far the rebound is spreading.
For stock indices, the key questions are whether European shares can complete their short-term corrections while retaining bullish daily signals, and whether short-term buying in US equities and the Nikkei can improve their daily charts. This regional divergence is a central feature of today’s market.
