Today, USD/JPY 159.00 and EUR/USD 1.1160 are close to spot. The 1.4 billion USD/JPY option at 157.70, which drew attention yesterday, is 117 pips below today’s spot. For the next business day, EUR/USD 1.1150 and 1.1155, and AUD/USD 0.6870 and 0.6875, are clustered around today’s spot.
Spot Rates
EUR/USD 1.1152
USD/JPY 158.87
GBP/USD 1.3332
USD/CHF 0.8268
USD/CAD 1.4210
AUD/USD 0.6873
NZD/USD 0.5603
EUR/GBP 0.8363
Today — November 11
EUR/USD
1.1100 €552 million
1.1160 €617 million
1.1195 €986 million
1.1205 €592 million
1.1210 €2.2 billion — largest
1.1215 €935 million
1.1220 €901 million
1.1240 €1 billion
1.1250 €924 million
1.1300 €915 million
1.1350 €554 million
Spot is 1.1152. The nearest level is 1.1160, 8 pips above. Ahead of the NY cut, watch whether price settles after approaching this level or breaks above and holds.
If the rebound continues after breaking above 1.1160, the next listed level is 1.1195, 43 pips above spot. The 1.1210–1.1220 zone has a combined €4.036 billion in options and is worth watching if the rebound extends.
To the downside, 1.1100 is 52 pips below. This is the next level to watch if 1.1160 caps the pair and the decline continues.
USD/JPY
157.00 $1.1 billion
157.40 $556 million
157.70 $1.4 billion — largest
157.75 $711 million
159.00 $523 million
160.00 $521 million
Spot is 158.87. The nearest level is 159.00, 13 pips above. The focus is whether price trades around 159.00 into the NY cut or breaks above and holds. The next listed level above, 160.00, is 100 pips beyond 159.00.
To the downside, 157.75 is 112 pips below, and the largest option, at 157.70, is 117 pips below. Together, these levels have $2.111 billion in options and form a zone to watch if the pair pulls back sharply.
USD/CHF
0.8165 $735 million
Spot is 0.8268. The 0.8165 level is 103 pips below and is worth watching if the decline extends enough for price to approach it.
USD/CAD
1.4150 $1.1 billion
Spot is 1.4210. The 1.4150 level is 60 pips below. If the pair falls toward it, watch whether the decline pauses there or selling continues after a break below.
AUD/USD
0.6960 A$542 million
Spot is 0.6873. The 0.6960 level is 87 pips above and is a level to watch if the rebound extends. The nearest listed levels are 0.6870 and 0.6875 for the next business day.
EUR/GBP
0.8330 €511 million
0.8400 €936 million — largest
Spot is 0.8363. The 0.8330 level is 33 pips below, while 0.8400 is 37 pips above. They are nearly equidistant from spot, with the larger option at 0.8400. Watch the reaction near 0.8330 if the pair falls and near 0.8400 if it rises.
GBP/USD and NZD/USD
No options are listed for today.
Next Business Day — November 12
EUR/USD
1.1100 €2 billion
1.1120 €1.4 billion
1.1125 €1.2 billion
1.1135 €940 million
1.1140 €2 billion
1.1150 €1.5 billion
1.1155 €956 million
1.1175 €767 million
1.1195 €746 million
1.1215 €1 billion
1.1225 €1.1 billion
1.1245 €739 million
1.1250 €2.4 billion — largest
1.1275 €681 million
1.1300 €1.5 billion
Measured against today’s spot, 1.1150 is 2 pips below and 1.1155 is 3 pips above. Including 1.1140, 12 pips below, these three levels between 1.1140 and 1.1155 have a combined €4.456 billion in options. First, watch the reaction around 1.1150–1.1155.
If the pair falls below 1.1140 and fails to recover, the next listed levels are 1.1135, 1.1125, and 1.1120. If the decline extends further, 1.1100, 52 pips below, has €2 billion in options.
To the upside, 1.1175 is 23 pips above and 1.1195 is 43 pips above. The largest option, at 1.1250, is 98 pips above and is a level to watch if the rebound extends substantially.
USD/JPY
157.80 $1.1 billion — largest
158.00 $887 million
158.45 $753 million
159.50 $966 million
Measured against today’s spot, the nearest level is 158.45, 42 pips below. If the decline continues, watch 158.00, 87 pips below, followed by 157.80, 107 pips below. The 158.00 and 157.80 levels have a combined $1.987 billion in options.
To the upside, 159.50 is 63 pips above. It becomes relevant if the pair breaks above today’s 159.00 level and continues higher.
GBP/USD
1.3250 £925 million — largest
1.3450 £567 million
From today’s spot, 1.3250 is 82 pips below and 1.3450 is 118 pips above. If the decline extends, watch for a reaction near the larger 1.3250 option. If the rebound extends substantially, monitor the reaction near 1.3450.
USD/CHF
0.8200 $580 million
The 0.8200 level is 68 pips below today’s spot. It is closer than today’s 0.8165 level, so if the pair declines into the next business day, watch the reaction at 0.8200 first.
AUD/USD
0.6870 A$674 million
0.6875 A$851 million
0.6900 A$1.2 billion — largest
0.6960 A$688 million
0.6970 A$940 million
From today’s spot, 0.6870 is 3 pips below and 0.6875 is 2 pips above. A total of A$1.525 billion in options is concentrated within this narrow 5-pip range, making it a near-term area to watch for the next business day.
If the rebound continues above 0.6875, monitor 0.6900, the largest level, 27 pips above. If the rise extends further, the 0.6960–0.6970 zone has a combined A$1.628 billion in options.
USD/CAD, NZD/USD, and EUR/GBP
No options are listed for the next business day.
Trading Strategy
For EUR/USD, watch whether the pair can break above and hold 1.1160 today. If the rebound continues, 1.1195 is the next listed level. If the pair trades around 1.1150 into the next business day, watch whether price continues to move around 1.1150–1.1155 or breaks lower and tests 1.1140.
For USD/JPY, prioritize the reaction at 159.00. If the pair breaks above and continues higher, watch the next business day’s 159.50 level. If the pullback extends, monitor 158.45 for the next business day.
For AUD/USD, watch price action around the next business day’s 0.6870–0.6875 range. If the pair moves higher, monitor whether the rebound retains momentum as it approaches 0.6900.
