Trend Reversal Probability Multi TF Scanner - Understanding the Logic and How to Use It
1. Introducing the indicator
How long has a trend phase lasted compared with earlier phases? Trend Reversal Probability Multi TF Scanner helps you answer this question by tracking how long momentum persists, comparing it with history and marking situations that deserve attention. The indicator combines duration lines, statistical levels, early warnings and Buy/Sell signals with a directional-change confirmation requirement.
Scanner helps you monitor multiple symbols and timeframes; Multi-TF displays information from your selected timeframe on the open chart. View details and download the indicator for your platform:
- Download Trend Reversal Probability Multi TF Scanner for MT5
- Download Trend Reversal Probability Multi TF Scanner for MT4
2. Understanding the logic and reading the indicator
2.1. How are bullish and bearish phases determined?
The indicator takes the difference between a fast moving average and a slow moving average to create a momentum series. Upward and downward changes in this series are smoothed, converted into an RSI-style oscillator and centered on 0. This momentum is derived from the difference between two moving averages, rather than an RSI calculated directly from closing prices.
When the oscillator is above 0, the indicator uses the bullish duration lines, turquoise by default. Below 0, the bearish lines are active, red by default. At exactly 0, the duration display belongs to the bearish group. Crossing above 0 identifies a shift to bullish momentum; crossing below 0 identifies a shift to bearish momentum. These shifts support calculations and state data; no separate Bullish Dot or Bearish Dot is drawn.
By default, Fast MA Length is 5, Slow MA Length is 34, and both averages use SMA and median price (High + Low) / 2. Oscillator Length is 20; Oscillator MA Method (SMMA = original RMA) defaults to the RMA smoothing of the original logic. You can change the method, applied price and volume source for averages using VWMA. These changes affect phase transitions, duration history and subsequent signals.
2.2. The five Signal Duration lines
Signal Duration counts the bars since the oscillator last crossed 0. The crossing bar has a value of 0; the next bar has a value of 1 if no new crossing occurs. At the next crossing, the counter returns to 0. Before the first crossing has been identified, the counter has no valid duration.
The other four lines equal 80%, 60%, 40% and 20% of Signal Duration on the same bar. For example, if Signal Duration is 10, the corresponding lines are 8, 6, 4 and 2. These ratios help you recognize the duration structure; they do not represent reversal probabilities of 80%, 60%, 40% or 20%.
Each duration level has two separate colored lines for bullish and bearish phases; only the line belonging to the current phase has data. In the Signal Duration Bullish/Bearish Line Settings groups and the corresponding percentage groups, you can show or hide each line and change its color, transparency, style and width.
2.3. The five gray statistical lines
When a phase ends, the indicator records the duration count on the bar immediately before the reset to 0. From the samples collected within the processed history, it calculates the mean and standard deviation (SD, a measure of how widely durations vary). Bullish and bearish phases share the same statistical sample.
| Line | Calculation | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Lower 1 SD | Mean − 1 SD | A duration level one standard deviation below the mean. |
| Average Duration | Mean of the recorded samples | Reference level for average duration. |
| Upper 1 SD | Mean + 1 SD | A duration level one standard deviation above the mean. |
| Upper 2 SD | Mean + 2 SD | A duration level two standard deviations above the mean. |
| Upper 3 SD | Mean + 3 SD | A duration level three standard deviations above the mean. |
These lines are gray by default and update when the duration sample changes. Enable Probability Levels controls the display of the level group; each line also has its own visibility and style options. Hiding a line does not exclude it from warning-threshold calculations. Maximum bars to process (0 = all available bars) determines the range of history processed, so it can also change the sample set and statistical levels.
2.4. What does Probability mean?
The indicator standardizes the current duration using the mean and standard deviation of the historical samples, then applies the standard normal cumulative distribution function to calculate Probability. This value is available in the Data Window as a number from 0 to 1; for example, 0.84 corresponds to approximately 84%. Probability is not drawn as a separate line.
At the mean, the value is approximately 50%; at Upper 1 SD, about 84.1%; at Upper 2 SD, about 97.7%; and at Upper 3 SD, about 99.9%. These values indicate the relative position of duration within the statistical model. A value of 98% does not mean that price will certainly reverse on the next bar or that a trade has a 98% win rate. Probability is not calculated when there are no valid samples or the standard deviation is 0.
2.5. Reversal warning arrows
Bullish Reversal Warning defaults to an orange arrow with code 217: it appears during a negative-momentum phase when Signal Duration is greater than the line selected under Buy Warning Threshold Line. Bearish Reversal Warning defaults to orange code 218: it appears during a positive-momentum phase when duration exceeds the line selected under Sell Warning Threshold Line.
The thresholds for the two sides are selected independently from five levels: Lower 1 SD, Average Duration, Upper 1 SD, Upper 2 SD and Upper 3 SD. Both default to Upper 3 SD. Equality with the threshold is insufficient; duration must exceed it. Selecting a lower level can produce earlier warnings and also changes which situations qualify for subsequent Buy/Sell signals.
The arrow is positioned above the Signal Duration line by half the standard deviation of the duration series over 100 bars. Warnings therefore also require 100 valid duration values and a valid threshold level. Arrows can appear on every bar that continues to meet the condition, rather than only on the first bar above the level. The arrow offset is not an entry price or a price target.
2.6. When does Buy or Sell appear?
- Buy Signal, turquoise code 233 by default: the oscillator crosses above 0 and the immediately preceding bar has a Bullish Reversal Warning.
- Sell Signal, red code 234 by default: the oscillator crosses below 0 and the immediately preceding bar has a Bearish Reversal Warning.
The consecutive-bar requirement is mandatory. If a warning occurs but the next bar does not change direction, the old warning is not retained while waiting for a later shift. For example, a bullish warning on bar A followed by a crossing above 0 on the next bar B produces Buy; if B has no warning and the crossing above 0 occurs only on bar C, the warning on A is insufficient to produce Buy on C.
Buy/Sell is plotted at the oscillator value on the shift bar in the indicator window. A shift without a warning on the immediately preceding bar does not produce Buy/Sell. The Show Buy Signal, Show Sell Signal and warning-visibility options only control the drawing; hiding a symbol does not remove the calculation conditions. On the current bar, information can change as new data arrives; distinguish this from signals formed on closed bars.
2.7. Six alert types
The Alert conditions group includes Buy Signal, Sell Signal, High Reversal Probability when Probability is above 84%, Extreme Reversal Probability when it is above 98%, Low Reversal Probability when it is below 14%, and Probability Reset when Signal Duration returns to 0. Conditions are checked on closed bars.
Probability conditions are states above or below a level on a closed bar; a fresh crossing of that level is not required. High and Extreme can both qualify when Probability is above 98%. Extreme Reversal Probability also differs from the warning arrows: the alert uses a fixed probability threshold, whereas arrows use the duration line you select separately for Buy/Sell.
By default, the condition types are selected, but Enable alerts for the current symbol and Enable alerts for all Scanner symbols are both off. You can enable alerts for the scope you wish to monitor and choose popup messages, push notifications, email or sound.
3. Scanner and Multi-TF
Scanner extends the monitoring of indicator states and signals to multiple symbols and timeframes, helping you select situations that deserve a closer chart inspection. Enable Show Scanner when you need the dashboard; symbols can come from the selected source or a custom list. With Allow chart changes on cell clickenabled, you can switch the chart from the selected cell.
Multi-TF lets you select the data timeframe under Timeframe to display (Current = chart timeframe). Duration lines, statistical lines, warning arrows and Buy/Sell signals support observation on the selected timeframe. Use separate parameters for each time frame allows individual settings by timeframe, including MA lengths, smoothing and both warning thresholds. When different configurations are used, differences in results between timeframes also reflect those configurations.
Timeframe labels can appear beside the Signal Duration line and have a countdown option. Data from a higher timeframe that is still forming can change until that timeframe's own bar closes. For shared controls and configuration, see the Multi-TF and Scanner User Guide.
4. Using the indicator with Scanner and Multi-TF
- Identify the momentum context. Read the duration-line colors to identify the current phase, then compare Signal Duration with Average Duration and the SD levels.
- Distinguish an extended phase from a directional shift. High duration or high Probability indicates that the current phase has lasted a long time within the model. Orange arrows mark warning conditions; Buy/Sell additionally requires a crossing of 0 on the very next bar.
- Use Scanner to select situations for review. Open the corresponding chart, check the warning arrow on the immediately preceding bar and the signal on the shift bar, and observe price action.
- Compare timeframes. Refer to the momentum phase on a higher timeframe and the situation on a lower one. Each timeframe has its own counter and statistics; signals do not need to appear on every timeframe, and simultaneous signals do not in themselves guarantee a trading outcome.
- Evaluate closed bars and an appropriate history range. Check the effects of the MA settings, Buy/Sell thresholds and history range before adopting a configuration. Combine price structure and your own risk-management principles when deciding what to do.
View details and download the version for your platform:
