Fundamental Market Analysis for August 10, 2026 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)

EURUSD:

The euro begins the European session after a notable advance late last week, although the supportive momentum now appears less one-sided. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, while business activity showed improvement. This continues to support expectations that the ECB will maintain a cautious policy stance and limits pressure on the single currency.

The main factor for the current session is a moderate recovery in the US dollar following Friday’s decline. Weak US employment data significantly reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, but the market has already priced in part of this information. On Monday, the US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields are edging higher, while investors turn their attention to inflation data due later in the week.

For EURUSD, this creates conditions for a downward correction. Fresh European data support the euro, but they do not currently provide a sufficiently strong local advantage to offset renewed demand for the dollar. With cautious positioning likely to prevail ahead of US inflation data, the baseline scenario allows for a decline in the pair without assuming a return to a strong US dollar trend.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1550, SL 1.1580, TP 1.1485

GBPUSD:

The pound begins the new session with moderate support from fresh UK labor market data. The REC/KPMG survey showed signs of stabilization in hiring in July and faster growth in starting salaries. This reduces the risk of a sharp deterioration in domestic conditions and keeps the Bank of England focused on price pressures, but it does not yet provide GBPUSD with a strong independent bullish driver.

Following weak US employment data, the dollar lost some of its advantage, although demand for the US currency is recovering moderately at the start of Monday’s session. US Treasury yields are edging higher, while the market is reluctant to extend Friday’s repricing of Federal Reserve expectations ahead of the July inflation report. For the pound, this creates renewed pressure despite more resilient signals from the UK labor market.

The Bank of England is keeping its policy rate at 3.75%, so the pound’s next move will depend on whether upcoming data confirm economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressure. For now, the fresh UK factor only limits downside pressure and does not outweigh the current US dollar impulse. Under the baseline scenario, the bias remains toward a moderate decline in GBPUSD during the session.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3485, SL 1.3520, TP 1.3400

USDJPY:

A strong local factor has emerged for the yen today. The Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions from the July meeting showed increased discussion of a faster pace of rate hikes. Several board members expressed concern about inflation risks, increasing the market’s sensitivity to the possibility of further policy tightening and providing fundamental support for the Japanese currency.

The dollar is recovering at the start of the session, while US Treasury yields are edging higher, giving USDJPY some support from the US side. However, Friday’s deterioration in employment data reduced the probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike and limits the sustainability of this impulse. The divergence in expectations between the two central banks is becoming less pronounced than before.

Additional support for the yen comes from the recent joint intervention by Japan and the United States, after which the market remains more cautious about renewed weakness in the Japanese currency. Unlike EURUSD and GBPUSD, the fresh Bank of Japan factor is capable of outweighing the moderate recovery in the dollar. If this repricing continues, the baseline scenario allows for a decline in USDJPY during the current session.

Trading idea: SELL 158.20, SL 158.65, TP 157.20

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