The past week was driven by US labour market data and rising geopolitical tensions. The Nonfarm Payrolls report on April 03 confirmed the resilience of employment in the US. However, wage growth and persistent inflation pressure did not provide the market with a clear signal of a potential shift toward a softer Federal Reserve policy. As a result, expectations of a prolonged period of high interest rates remained in place, but the US dollar did not receive stable support amid increased demand for safe-haven assets and commodities. Market volatility remained elevated, particularly in oil and gold.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair closed the week near 1.1515, once again returning from local highs to the 1.1510-1.1530 area. Since mid-March, the market has been moving within a sideways range along this key support/resistance zone. A breakout below it may open the way to 1.1450 and further to 1.1390-1.1415. In case of a move back above the 1.1600-1.1620 zone, the next targets will be 1.1700 and 1.1765-1.1830. As long as the price remains near 1.1510-1.1530, the baseline scenario stays neutral with a downside risk.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin closed the week at 66,826. After failing to hold above 70,000, the market moved lower again, confirming persistent selling pressure. At the same time, since early February, BTC/USD has been trading within a sideways range without a clear trend. The nearest resistance is located at 68,800-70,000. Only a sustained move above this zone would allow a return to 71,500-72,000 and further to 73,400-74,000 and 76,000. Support is located at 65,500-65,600, followed by 63,000-64,000 and 59,785-60,000. As long as the price remains below 70,000, the scenario stays neutral with downside risks.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent closed the week at 106.50 per barrel. The market failed to hold above the 109.00-110.00 zone, which indicates continued range-bound dynamics. A breakout above this zone may open the way to 114.00 and further to 119.00. Support is located at 100.00, followed by 97.00-98.00 and 92.80. As long as the price remains above 100.00, the market retains chances for stabilisation, although volatility remains high and the geopolitical premium persists. Prices are also supported by ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including risks related to the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil supply passes.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold managed to break above the strong resistance at 4,600-4,650 and closed the week at 4,675 per ounce. The next barrier is located at 4,750-4,800, followed by 4,850 and then 5,000. The nearest support is at 4,525-4,550, followed by 4,440-4,450, 4,200-4,250 and 4,100. While the price holds above 4,650, pressure on gold is decreasing, although a strong upward momentum has not yet been formed.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
In the coming week, Monday will be a public holiday in Europe due to Easter, while China will also be closed for the Qingming Festival. Market attention will then focus on inflation and activity data. On April 07 – Services PMI in the Eurozone. On April 08 – FOMC Meeting Minutes. On April 09 – US initial jobless claims. On April 10 – CPI data in Germany and the US.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral near 1.1510-1.1530 with downside risk. BTC/USD – neutral below 70,000 within a sideways range. Brent – neutral-volatile above 100.00 with upside potential driven by geopolitics. XAU/USD – neutral-to-bullish while holding above 4,650.
