The US dollar index steadies below the 100 mark as an indication that the global risk sentiment hasn’t been shaken by the latest employment
figures in the US.
The USDJPY is ready take over the 107-resistance. Gold remains close to the $1700 per oz.
The
euro and the pound trade near their weekly averages. The EURUSD fluctuated in a tight range of 1.0820/1.0850 in Asia. Due today, the Italian
industrial production should confirm a 20% decline in March, but the market appears to be anesthetized against bad economic data, hence
figures will certainly not the change the course of the euro. We expect to see firm offers above the 1.09 mark and a solid resistance near 1.10
as worries regarding frictions between the German court and the European Central Bank (ECB) will likely limit the appetite in the single
currency. The latest CFTC data confirms that investors cut their long speculative euro positions last week and given the solid buildup in
long euro positions since March, there is room for further unwind in euro longs.
Cable could make another attempt on the 1.25 offers,
however, the pound should encounter more resistance into the 100 and 200-day moving averages at 1.2645 and 1.2740 respectively. Appetite
in sterling will likely remain until Wednesday, when March industrial and manufacturing production figures and the first quarter GDP will
give a hint on the extent of the coronavirus carnage.
WTI is faced with decent offers above the $25 per barrel. Investors could be
tempted to realize profits following last week’s recovery and walk away, given that the downside risks will arise as the rollover date for
June contracts approach.
By Ipek Ozkardeskaya
