(02 MAY 2018)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:Canada GDP benefits from tailwinds in February as trade tensions dissipate

Confirming its willingness to exempt Canada, Mexico and the EU from aluminum and steel tariffs until June 1, 2018, the Trump administration is giving a break to its key commercial partners, as it is expected to start hard talks with Chinese negotiators as early as Thursday. In that context, the Canadian economy is doing well, supported by contained y/y core inflation at +1.90% and accelerating industrial production activities in March. As given by recent progression in gross domestic product (GDP) data given at +0.40% m/m and +3% y/y in February, Canadian economic growth is expected to continue in that direction due to continued rebound in mining, oil and gas extraction activities in April. Bank of Canada GDP growth expectations of 2% for 2018 might probably be a bit too conservative given current upturn.

As Fed FOMC rate decision is taking place today at 20:00 GMT+2, with rate unchanged at +1.75% and continued tightening in June 13, 2018 meeting (most likely scenario), we’re expecting the loonie to stay under pressure. Currently trading at 1.2821, the USD/CAD is expected to increase along the 1.2835 range in the short-term.

By Vincent Mivelaz