First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- The pair EUR/USD continues to keep in the zone of the 2018 mid-term side channel 1.2200-1.2525, more precisely, in its central part, gradually reducing volatility in comparison with the beginning of this year. Last week, the experts called the horizon 1.2215 as the nearest level of support for it, as for resistance, the horizon 1.2410 was named, in the area of which the pair fixed its minimum - 1.2250 and maximum - 1.2413, showing the fluctuation range of less than 165 points. As for the end of the week session, the pair recorded the result at 1.2288;
- The GBP/USD pair. Here, almost all indicators (85%), as well as 40% of analysts, were determined to buy it, calling resistance 1.4345 as the nearest target. The pair went north right from the very beginning of the week, and even rose 30 points above the target level at some point, but the breakdown turned out to be false. Not having kept at the height of 1.4375 even for an hour, it turned around and, as 60% of experts had expected, rushed down, reaching the weekly bottom in the 1.4000 zone on Friday;
- giving a forecast for the pair USD/JPY, most experts (70%) had believed that its weekly fluctuations would occur in the range of 107.00-108.50. Taking into account the standard backlash, this forecast turned out to be correct, and the pair stayed within 106.87-107.85 in its lateral movement. It finished the week not far from the level where it began, at the horizon 107.64;
- with a small tolerance, the forecast for cryptocurrencies was absolutely correct once again. The forecasted trip to the north did take place. For BTC/USD, it assumed that it would reach the height of 8.575. In reality, the pair rose to the mark of 8.535 by the end of Friday, and then went further up to the target.
For the etherium, the goal was the height of 600, which it reached on the night from Friday to Saturday. At the same time, the pair LTC/USD overcame the height of 145.00, which had been called by experts, and the pair XRP/USD rose above the level of 0.85.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. The overwhelming majority (75%) of experts, together with graphical analysis on D1, continue to insist on the movement of the pair in the side channel 1.2200-1.2415. In this case, it is highly likely that at first the pair will drop to its lower limit, and will go up only after it beats off it. The readings of the oscillators confirm such a scenario, 15% of which are already signaling the pair is oversold.
If we talk about the prospects for early May, graphical analysis and about half of analysts suggest that the pair will rise to the highs of February 2018. to the area of 1.2555. In the bears win, the pair can go to the level of 1.1915-1.2085.
The formation of trends can be influenced by the decision on the interest rate and the ECB press conference on Thursday April 26, as well as the annual data on US GDP, which will be released on Friday April 27;
- GBP/USD. It is clear that all the trend indicators have turned to the south following by the last week's results. However, 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that 1.4000 will be the lower limit of the weekly side channel 1.4000-1.4245. The next resistance is located at 1.4375. The bullish version is also confirmed by oscillators, 20% of which signal the pair is oversold.
40% of analysts side with the bears who believe that the pair will still be able to break through the level of 1.4000 and fall first to support 1.3885, and then even lower - to zone 1.3745;
- USD/JPY. 85% of analysts, 100% of trend indicators on H4 and 80% on D1, graphical analysis and the vast majority of oscillators vote for the strengthening of the dollar and further growth of the pair. On H4, the graphical analysis draws the corridor 107.25-108.05, on D1, the range of oscillations is wider - first decrease to support at 106.60, and then rise to the tops in the 109.00 zone. This scenario is consistent with the oscillators, a quarter of which give signals that the pair is oversold.
Analysts who support the fall of the pair to support 105.00 are only 15% at the moment. However, in the medium term, this possibility is not ruled out by a third of experts;
- Cryptocurrencies. After the BTC/USD rose to 9,000, experts expect the pair to roll back into the zone 7,785-8,200. In this case, it is highly likely that the fall will be even stronger, and the pair will return to the zone of 6,585-7,100.
In case the etherium breaks through the support of 500.00, the pair ETH/USD can return to the zone 360-430. Supports for the pair LTC/USD are 135, 122 and 110, as for the pair XRP/USD, they are 0.67, 0.55 and 0.43.
The opportunities for growth of these cryptopairs, according to experts, are limited to Saturday-Sunday highs of April 21 and 22.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of money deposited.