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Monday, April 16th
The EUR/USD pair trades within tight range of 1.2324-42, however, showing minor gains this Monday. Today renewed risk-off sentiment remains the key driver across the market on the back of fresh developments on the Middle East and lack of information on the US-China trade conflict. According to latest news headlines, this weekend the US conducted coordinated air strike on the Syrian chemical weapons facilities. Nevertheless, the market showed limited reaction on the latest US actions, as it was widely expected, especially after latest US President D.Trump’s tweets, where he clearly hinted on a possible air strike on Syria. In the day ahead, the EZ data calendar won’t be able to surprise the market with any macroeconomic releases, while the US will publish retail sales numbers, which will from pair’s further trajectory during the NA session.
The GBP/USD pair remains positive for the seventh session in a row, trading in the region of its 3-month highs, marked at 1.4296 spot during previous trading session. The positive tone of the pair could be mostly attributed to subdued dynamics of the US dollar, which failed to extend its recovery after notable drawdown, witnessed last week. On the other hand, further growth of the pair looks unlikely, as broad risk aversion, sparked by weekend’s developments in the Middle East, is weighing on the risky pound. However, in the week ahead investors will closely look for the UK important data releases, featuring data from the labor market, the CPI report and retail sales numbers, which will be especially interesting in view the BoE next policy meeting. But today, the UK calendar won’t bring us anything interesting, while the US will publish retails sales numbers, which will be able to spark some volatility on the pair during the NA session.
The NZD/USD pair was trading mostly unchanged in Asia within the range of 0.7346-63, as risk-off environment continues to form widespread market trend. Today investors are digesting the latest news, saying that the US performed coordinated air strike on Syria this weekend, which sparked fresh risk aversion, thus limiting any gains of the higher-yielding Kiwi. However, the reaction on fresh developments in the Middle East was limited, as investors had already priced in actions from the US side, especially after Mr.Trump’s tweets, where he clearly hinted on a possible air strike. Adding to this, slight retreat of oil prices from the region of its 3-year tops also weights on the commodity-linked currency of New Zealand this Monday. On the data front, today the US will release retail sales data during the NA session, which will be able to set up pair’s further direction, but until then widespread trend will continue to lead the pair.
The dollar/yen pair seems to have caught wave of bids on the back of broad demand for safety. Today the pair refreshed its intraday lows at 107.13, as traders are digesting weekend’s developments in the Middle East. As it was reported, the US conducted an air attack on Syria, with backing from Britain and France. This news sparked fresh risk aversions, thus supporting the yen, as the safe-haven currency. However, seems that the market reaction was limited and the pair stalled its retreat near the lower end of its daily range, as markets were awaiting these actions from the US, especially after D.Trump’s comments, threating with missile strike on Syria in response to chemical attack by the Syrian regime. It is expected that the broad market trend will continue to navigate the pair this Monday, while important reports from the US will also be able to bring some trading opportunities during the NA session.
Major events of the day:
US Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2288 R. 1.2366
USDJPY S. 106.86 R. 108.00
GBPUSD S. 1.4174 R. 1.4326
USDCHF S. 0.9579 R. 0.9657
AUDUSD S. 0.7716 R. 0.7830
NZDUSD S. 0.7312 R. 0.7414
USDCAD S. 1.2527 R. 1.2659
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