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Friday, March 16th
The EUR/USD pair has finally recovered its positive tone, having bounced off its weekly lows, marked near the level of 1.2300. Seems that the US dollar has run out of stream, all amidst persistent concerns over a global trade war, sparked by recent US President D.Trump’s metal tariffs, thus allowing the pair to recover some pips this Friday. Moreover, Mr.Trump’s decision to fire H.R.McMaster as his national security adviser on Thursday also added some weakness to the US dollar. Today all traders’ eyes will remain glued to the EZ inflation report, while the US data will also be able to attract some attention during the NA session.
The GBP/USD pair corrected its positions higher to the level of 1.3950 in early Europe, however, remaining under bearish pressure. Ongoing demand for safety, backed by US President’s tariff plans and fears of “hard” Brexit, and additionally spurred by recent reshuffle of administrative staff of the White House, remain one of the key driving factors across the market this week, thus limiting any chances of the pound to gain any pips beyond the level of 1.4000. Moreover, it is expected that increased interest of investors to less risky assets will continue to dominate the market, as now all attention remains focused on the Fed and BoE meetings, where both regulators are expected to speak about their rate strategies. But today, the UK data calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy, while the US will publish housing market data and JOLT’s jobs report, which likely will spark some volatility during the NA session.
The USD/JPY pair failed to hold its positions and again slipped below the level of 106.00 at the end of this week. The reason of pair’s weakness remains broad risk-off sentiment, triggered by US President D.Tump’s decision to remove National Security Adviser H.R.McMaster from his current positions. This big resignation has accelerated the demand for safe-haven assets, such as the yen. Moreover, the ongoing fears of a global trade war is another factor, which increase markets interest in less risky instruments lately. On the data front, today the US will publish data from labor and housing markets during the NA session, but widespread sentiment, caused by strong risk aversion, will continue to navigate the pair on Friday.
The NZD/USD pair is the biggest loser of this trading session, having refreshed its 8-day lows at 0.7241 spot. Today, the widespread trend of risk aversion remains the main driver across the market, thereby exerting notable pressure on the pair. According to the latest reports, the US President D.Trump decided to fire the US National Security Adviser H.R.McMaster. This and previous changes in inner circle of the US President had a significant impact on the risk appetite of the financial market. Moreover, it is expected that the better demand for safety will continue to exert influence on the pair ahead of the Fed and RBNZ monetary policy meetings due next week. Today market’s attention will remain focused on the US macro data, which will be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities during NY trades.
Major events of the day:
EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US JOLTs Job Openings – 17.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2245 R. 1.2413
USDJPY S. 105.54 R. 106.80
GBPUSD S. 1.3880 R. 1.4016
USDCHF S. 0.9402 R. 0.9574
AUDUSD S. 0.7735 R. 0.7915
NZDUSD S. 0.7226 R. 0.7358
USDCAD S. 1.2897 R. 1.3145
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