(22 JANUARY 2018)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:Long US shutdown unlikely

(22 JANUARY 2018)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:Long US shutdown unlikely

22 January 2018, 12:53
Jiming Huang
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Monday promises to be stormy in the Senate. The long and arduous negotiations between Republicans and Democrats on Friday have ended to a zero point with regard to the Government budget validation. The main source of the issue being the withdrawal of the Daca program that protected young migrants called “Dreamers” against deportation. Consequences are drastic as 700’000 government workers won’t be working on Monday and the coming week until the bill is finally signed! Remaining government services and deemed as “vital” are for instance in air traffic control, domestic safety (e.g. military), national security and law enforcement agencies. However according to the Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, the Republicans would be supporting a consent to support an immigration reform under the condition that Democrats agree to the government short-term financing bill until February 8th or longer, a rather temporary solution that should avoid additional damages that could cost billions.

From our perspective, the scenario of a long-lasting shutdown like the 16-day long that occurred during the “Obamacare” healthcare reform negotiation and cost USD 24 billion according to Standard & Poor’s or the 27-day shutdown of 1995 regarding the health insurance program that concerns the US aging population are less likely. We remain confident that short-term bills remain passage solutions until all parties finally get an arrangement on the “Dreamers” controversy. 

By Vincent Mivelaz

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