Inflation is back, especially in the US, where the US Price Producer Index has broken its downtrend of nearly a decade. In the next few months, this will explode volatility and the bond-market bubble, when investors start unwinding their bonds – along with the US Federal Reserve doing the same. Stocks and bonds are now positively correlated, whereas normally they are inversely correlated. The VIX volatility index has significantly jumped recently, climbing from 9 to a one-month high of almost 11.
Today the US Consumer Price Index will be released and should come in around 2%. Ironically, the better (higher) the rate, the more pressure will be on the markets that are on steroids from the Fed with its era of free money. It is definitely time to get cautious.
By Peter Rosenstreich