(02 OCTOBER 2017)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:Spanish vote triggers slight euro weakness

The Catalan referendum has brought a very important question in centre stage. Do people have in Europe the self-determination right? It seems that the answer is a big no. Spanish Prime minister declared that there was not vote (i.e. legal) vote in Catalonia. Anyway the police violence have been used and it definitely drove “No” voters to stay at home. As a result this has created this surprising result: 90% of Catalonians are in favour of the independence vote.

This is then weakening the Spanish central power and European nations are being weekend by regionalists. Amid the vote, the single currency has slightly declined but remained above 1.17 USD. We believe the impact of this vote won’t weaken the European Union. We rather consider that a weaker Spain would benefit to the European Union. European Union does not need nations.

According to us, the Catalonian vote won’t trigger a political crisis in Europe, even in the short-term. However this vote reveals the economic underlying difficulties of Spain. Catalonia is the richest region in Spain and is not accepting to “pay for everyone”. 

By Yann Quelenn