The main focus of market participants at the beginning of week will be focused on the OPEC meeting on Wednesday 30 November and the publication on Friday of data on the labor market in the US in November. Last week was the weakening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market after almost three weeks of growth on the background of the victory of Donald Trump in the presidential race.
Expectations with regard to the fact that the president-elect Donald Trump will stimulate the world's largest economy by new tax credits, and further infrastructure spending led to a massive strengthening of the US currency after Trump victory. Investors bought the US currency and the shares of major banks, medical, technology, biotechnology, industrial sector.
The past week was marked by profit-taking in the already long positions on the dollar.
Expectations increase in US interest rates in December, probably already priced in, and the US dollar corrected, decreasing the foreign exchange market. For further US dollar growth it needs a "breather."
As always, it is expected publication of important macroeconomic data and published several important news on the upcoming trading week.
Monday
17:00 (GMT + 3) - ECB President Mario Draghi. The surge in volatility in the financial markets is usually observed during his speeches immediately after the ECB meeting on monetary policy. Other performances tend to cause less volatility. However, in any case, you must show extra care when trading in the foreign exchange market, especially in the euro and European indices during performances M.Dragi, which is famous for the fact that their comments can deploy financial markets
18:30 - November index of business activity in the industrial sector the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Tuesday
2:00 - speech of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz
2:30 - block major macroeconomic indices for Japan, is a barometer of economic growth: inflation index of retail sales for October, the unemployment rate in October (forecast 3.0%), household spending, which is used as an indicator of consumer optimism (forecast -0.6 %). Expected sharp increase in trading volatility for the yen and the Japanese stock market
10:45 - France GDP (final) for the 3rd quarter
12:30 - consumer credit in the UK, approved applications for mortgages in October
13:00 speech of the RBNZ Wheeler
16:00 - inflation consumer price indices (CPI) in Germany in November. Has a strong influence on the euro quotes because of paramount importance for the German economy of the Euro zone. CPI index is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends indicator in Germany. A high value is positive for the EUR, and vice versa.
16:30 - the price index of the US GDP for the third quarter, the annual US GDP in the third quarter. GDP data is key along with data on the labor market and inflation, the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. High result strengthens the USD, and vice versa. GDP forecast for Q3 + 3.0%
16:30 - the balance of payments in Canada in Q3
17:00 - the index of housing prices in the US in September
18:00 - the level of US consumer confidence in November. Forecast 100.0
23:00 - Report RBNZ Financial Stability
Wednesday
OPEC meeting
00:30 - the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its report on the change in US oil inventories last week
2:50 - Industrial production in Japan in October
3:00 - New home sales in Australia in November
3:01 - consumer confidence index from the Gfk of November in the UK
10:00 - UBS consumption indicator in Switzerland in October. The indicator consists of five components: new car sales, the level of activity in the retail sector, the number of nights booked in hotels in Switzerland, the level of consumer confidence and the volume of credit card transactions
11:00 - KOF index of leading indicators for November in Switzerland
11:55 - unemployment rate in Germany in November
13:00 - inflation index of consumer prices (the CPI) in the euro area in November (pre-release). CPI index is a key indicator of inflation, and has a strong influence on the euro quotes. A high value is positive for the EUR, and vice versa
13:30 - Report on the financial stability of the Bank of England
15:30 - ECB President Mario Draghi. Volatility will rise sharply in the euro and European indices, if Mario Draghi, the ECB's monetary policy will concern topics
16:15 - change in the number of people employed in the United States (the report on employment from ADP) in November. Normally, has a strong impact on the market and the dollar quotation, however, the direct correlation with the Non-Farm Payrolls, as a rule, are not marked. Strong data is a positive impact on the dollar. It is expected to increase by 13 000 Number of employees in the private sector of the US (160,000 against 147,000 in October). Reducing result weakens the US dollar, and vice versa
16:30 - block of inflation indicators for the US in November - personal income/spending. High result strengthens the US dollar, and vice versa
16:30 - Canadian GDP in September, and the annual GDP for the 3rd quarter (forecast + 3.4%, which has a positive effect on the position of the Canadian dollar)
17:45 - business activity index Chicago PMI, which gives an estimate of the economic activity in the states of Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. A result above 50 is positive for the dollar (forecast 51.8)
18:00 - Incomplete transactions on home sales in the US in October
18:30 - US Department of Energy publishes its weekly report on US oil storages and petroleum products
22:00 - "Beige Book" economic survey of the US
Thursday
1:30 - the index of activity in the manufacturing sector by AiG November, covering business conditions in the manufacturing sector in Australia. A reading above 50 is positive for the AUD, and vice versa
04:00 4:45 - indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector and services in China in November. China's economy – is the second largest in the world after the US. Therefore, the publication of important macroeconomic indicators of the country has a significant impact on the global financial markets, primarily - on the position of the yuan and other Asian currencies, the dollar, commodity currencies, as well as Chinese and Asian stock indices
11:15 - the real volume of retail trade in Switzerland for October
11:30 - 11:55 - business activity index from Markit for November in the manufacturing sector in Italy, France, Germany
12:00 - PMI from Markit for November in the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone. Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the general state of the Eurozone economy. The indicator exceeds the point 50, is positive for the EUR, and vice versa
12:30 - PMI from Markit for November in the UK manufacturing sector
13:00 - Italian GDP in the 3rd quarter
13:00 - unemployment in the euro area in October (10% of the forecast)
16:30 - the number of new (primary) applications for the grant on unemployment in the US last week. The result is higher than expected indicates a weakness of the labor market that negatively affects the US dollar, and vice versa. The previous value of 251 000
17:45 - PMI from Markit for November in the US manufacturing sector
18:00 - business activity index (PMI) for November from the ISM in the US manufacturing sector, the index is a gradual acceleration of inflation in the US from November ISM, construction spending for October in the United States
Friday
3:30 - Retail sales in Australia in October
09:45 - Swiss GDP in the 3rd quarter
13:00 - index ex-works prices in the Eurozone in October – is a key inflation index. Forecast + 0.3% and -1.0% yoy
16:30 - the key monthly data on the labor market in the US in November, among them - the number of new jobs (Non-Farm PayRolls), is created with the / x US economy sector (forecast 174 000, 13 000 more than in October), as well as data on unemployment in the US, the average hourly wage
16:30 - monthly data on the labor market in November in Canada
21:00 - Report oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. At the moment, the number of active drilling rigs in the US is 474
Investors will closely monitor Friday's data from the US, because they are the last before the Fed meeting on 13-14 December and will build the base forecast of further interest rate rises in the US as part of the plan the Fed's monetary policy. Positive data completely convince market players that put on the rising dollar and a rate hike in December. Negative data will cause a decrease of the US dollar in the financial market.
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