AUD/USD Remains Constructive Above 7570- U.S. Durable Goods on Tap

AUD/USD Remains Constructive Above 7570- U.S. Durable Goods on Tap

27 September 2016, 20:43
Mohammad Soubra

AUD/USD Remains Constructive Above 7570- U.S. Durable Goods on Tap

Talking Points

  • AUDUSD rally at risk ahead of U.S. Durable Goods Orders
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Headline print expected to contract for the 4th time in 2016

AUDUSD 120min


Technical OutlookThe Aussie rallied failed just ahead of the August high-day close, a level the pair has been unable to close above for the past two months. Bearish divergence into the highs leaves the immediate topside bias at risk with a possible median-line formation identified earlier today.

Interim support rests with the September high-day close at 7642 backed by the weekly opening-range lows / 38.2% retracement at 7599-7603. More significant support rests at the 7568- also an area of interest for possible exhaustion / long-entries.

The focus remains lower while below the upper median-line parallel (blue) with a breach above 7699(bearish invalidation) needed to fuel the next leg higher in the pair. Such a scenario targets subsequent resistance objectives at the 2016 high-day close at 7735 & the 88.6% retracement at 7756.

From a trading standpoint I’ll be looking for a pullback towards longer-term slope support for long-entries. Keep in mind we also have numerous Fed members on tap this week as well, including Chair Yellen. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade & more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk. 

  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net shortAUDUSD- the ratio stands at -1.42 (41% of traders are long)- weak bullish reading
  • Long positions are 22.1% below levels seen last week while short positions are 22.1% higher during the same period.
  • Open interest is 0.9% lower than yesterday but 5.4% above its monthly average
  • The last time SSI was at this extreme (-1.41) was on September 6th, two days before the monthly high was registered. The recent dynamic suggests that the near-term risk remains for a pullback before resumption of the broader up-trend.

Relevant Data Releases This Week



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