USDCAD wipes out the 'holiday' losses

5 July 2016, 19:21
Sherif Hasan

USD/CAD fell on July 1 and July 4 holidays

USD/CAD is trading almost precisely where it closed the day on June 30.

It's taken a 110 pip, one-way rally to get there but all that's happened is that the pair has unwound declines on July 1 (a holiday in Canada) and July 4 (a holiday in the USA).

Naturally, that's not all that's gone into the trade. But yesterday's very weak quarterly business outlook survey from the Bank of Canada was entirely ignored at the time.

The gains in the pair have been spurred by a 3.5% drop in oil and 6% decline in natural gas prices.

Technically, a break above Friday's high would mark somewhat of a three-candle reversal but it's not a signal I put much weight into, given the holiday.

The dominant theme at the moment is sentiment about the global economy. No one is yet sure what to make of the Brexit vote and the idea that central bankers will be in neutral or cutting for the rest of the year (or if that's even true).

Over the past five days, the idea was that things aren't as bad as they seemed. Now the market is worried again that maybe they are that bad. Factory orders showed US business investment is weak and there isn't a realistic path to better profitability for US companies, even if low rates keep the buyback train going.

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