USD/CAD: Trading the Canadian GDP

29 June 2016, 14:34
Sherif Hasan

Canadian GDP is a measurement of the production and growth of the economy. Analysts consider GDP one the most important indicators of economic activity. A reading which is better than the market forecast is bullish for the Canadian dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/CAD.

Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

The Canadian GDP is released monthly, unlike most other developed countries which post GDP on a quarterly basis. The key indicator provides an excellent indication of the health and direction of the economy. Traders should pay close attention to this indicator, as an unexpected reading can quickly affect the movement of USD/CAD.

GDP has posted two straight declines and these weak readings have weighed on the Canadian dollar. The markets are expecting better news in the April report, with an estimate of +0.1%.

Sentiments and levels

The aftershocks from the Brexit vote are likely to continue this week, and that’s bad news for risk assets like the Canadian dollar, as investors hide for cover. So, the overall sentiment is bullish on USD/CAD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.3219, 1.3081, 1.2990, 1.29 and 1.2780.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: -0.2% to +0.4%. In such a scenario, USD/CAD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 0.5% to 0.9%: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair below one support line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 0.9%: An unexpected surge by the indicator would likely push USD/CAD downwards, and a second support level might be broken as a result.
  4. Below expectations: -0.7% to -0.3%:  A weak reading could cause the pair to climb and break one level of resistance.
  5. Well below expectations: Below -0.7%. A strong contraction in economic growth would likely hurt the loonie and USD/CAD could break above a second resistance level.
Share it with friends: