5 April 2016, 09:48
Vasilii Apostolidi

EUR/USD: Neutral: Likely in a broad 1.1330/1.1495 range.

EUR is holding on to its recent gains and at this stage, it is still unclear if it can move higher in a sustained manner in the days ahead. A close above 1.1400 is not crucial anymore as short-term momentum has eased off considerably (but not enough to indicate that a short-term top is in place).

Overall, we view the outlook for EUR as positive with solid support at 1.1330 with the 1.1495 October 2015 acting as a key resistance.

GBP/USD: Neutral: Back in a broad 1.4050/1.4450 range.

There is no change to the view wherein we consider the current movement in GBP as part of a consolidation phase. Expected range, 1.4050/1.4450.

AUD/USD: Bullish: Upside potential limited to 0.7740.

The sharp drop yesterday certainly does not bode well for our bullish AUD view. However, confirmation of a short-term top is only upon a break below 0.7550.

That said, 0.7670 is acting as a very strong resistance from here and this level has to break before further AUD strength can be expected.

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NZD/USD: Change to Neutral: In a broad 0.6720/0.6930 range.

The sharp drop earlier this morning took out the stop-loss for our bullish view at 0.6800. A short-term top is likely in place at last week’s 0.6968 high (our 0.7000 target not met).

The current movement is viewed as the start of a consolidation phase and we expect this pair to trade in a neutral 0.6720/0.6930 range from here.

USD/JPY: Neutral: Increasing downside risk.

While USD is clearly on the defensive, the internal momentum is not as impulsive as we would like and it is unclear if the current weakness could extend significantly lower in the days ahead. Bear in mind that the sharp drop to 110.65 last month was quickly reversed and this level is acting as a strong support followed by the major level of 110.00.

That said, the downside pressure will continue to increase unless USD can move back above 112.00 in the next 1 to 2 days (111.60 is already a strong resistance).

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