Generalized Forex Forecast for March 28 - April 1 2016

Generalized Forex Forecast for March 28 - April 1 2016

26 March 2016, 16:58
Sergey Ershov

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:

■ if we talk about the forecast for EUR/USD, those 40% of the experts, who called for the pair falling, were right. The forecast of the chart analysis on H4, turned out to be right as well, asserting that the bottom of that week was in the zone of 1.1130 - on Thursday the pair almost reached this value, stopping at the level of 1.1143;

■ with regard to GBP/USD, the predictions of a sharp decrease of the pair have been justified by 100%. The pair paused briefly at the lower border of the side channel - 1.4360, broke through it and just fell down, reaching the specified support in the area of ​​1.4230. Then, in an effort to achieve the February lows, it went even further, down to the level of 1.4080;

■ giving forecast for USD/JPY, both analysts and graphical analysis had claimed that the pair had reached its bottom, and therefore should fight off upwards - to a height of 113.00, which is what happened: the pair finished the week at the height of 113.03;

■ USD / CHF. Here we predicted growth of the pair to the 0.9850 level, which it closely missed, reaching the level of 0.9786 on Friday. Therefore, this forecast can be considered fulfilled, if not by 100%, then at least by 90%.


Forecast for the coming week:

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

■ the upcoming week is filled with publications of various important economic data. Perhaps that is why there is no consensus among the experts regarding the future of EUR/USD. Thus, 55% of them insist on the growth of the pair and its move to the zone 1.1340 ÷ 1.1470. As for the rest of the analysts, supported by graphical analysis and indicators on the H4, on the other hand, they point to a possible fall of the pair to the 1.1055 mark. In this case, a slight rise of the pair to the resistance 1.1220 is possible before the fall;

■ the future GBP/USD, according to analysts, also seems very hazy - 40% of them stand for the growth of the pair, the same amount are for its fall, and 20% predict a sideways trend. But as for indicators and graphical analysis of both H4 and on D1, they clearly point to the south. In this case, just as in the case with the EUR/USD, at first a slight increase of the pair to area 1.4170 ÷ 1.4240 is possible, after which it should aspire down - first to the support 1.4070, then - to 1.3970 and then even further - to the February lows near 1.3850;

■ USD/JPY. Here, expert opinions are divided almost equally. As for the graphical analysis and indicators on the D1, they speak of the side channel, where there are two options of boundaries: in the timeframe H4 there is a fluctuation in the zone of 112.30 ÷ 113.50, while in the timeframe D1 - the fluctuations are 110.70 ÷ 114.00 with a gradual consolidation in the support area. If we talk about a long-term forecast, both graphical analysis and 70% of the experts point to the subsequent sharp rebound of the pair from the lower limit to the height of 117.00, which may occur in the second half of April; 

■ as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF, there is nothing new: 65% of the experts, graphical analysis, and 70% of indicators on H4 indicate to the pair's growth first to 0.9880 resistance and then further - to a height of 1.0100. The support, as well as last week, remains the same - 0.9650.

Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov

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