NZD: Consumer confidence continues to bounce near-average levels - ANZ

Cameron Bagrie, Chief Economist at ANZ, notes that the NZ consumers continue to go about their daily business, if readings from the ANZ-Roy Morgan survey are anything to go by. 


“At 118.0 the index is down a smidgen on February (119.7), but in line with the historical average. Sentiment has been oscillating in a reasonably narrow range over the past six months after coming out of a chocolate dip – another sign the economy is still in reasonable nick. We are neither shell-shocked nor egg-static.

Key insights from the survey include: 

• Consumers are feeling better off compared with a year ago and this optimism is broadly unchanged on the month prior (+8 versus +9). Perceived wealth is a critical influence on spending decisions. It’s moving up and flags the same for spending. Encouragingly, consumers expect to be even better off 12 months down the track (+29). 

• A net 34% believe it is a good time to buy a major household item. That is down 6 points from February, but still elevated. 

• Respondents’ optimism over the short-term economic outlook slipped 5 points to a five-month low. But at +3, it’s still in positive territory. There is still more optimism on the longer-term outlook (+17). 

• The Current Conditions Index dipped 3 points to 120.8. That’s still above the historical average of 115, helping to keep wallets open. 

• The Future Conditions Index eased ever so slightly from 116.7 to 116.2 and sits below the long-term average. 

• Confidence rose in all regions apart from Auckland (in seasonally adjusted terms), with overall sentiment the most positive in Wellington and Canterbury.”

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