Martina Song, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the dot plot was trimmed back again, FOMC participants indicating the appropriate fed funds rate is at 0.875% at the end of 2016.
“This is 50bp lower than the Dec projection. The signal for four hikes in 2017 was retained. A downgrade was widely expected however this was clearly more dovish than markets had anticipated.
While the Fed has been consistently lowering its median rates projection, markets pricing for hikes have been running well below this. Currently there is less than a full 25bp rise priced in in 2016 and the implied probability of a move in April is below 10%. Despite the recent improvement in data, the Fed also downgraded its growth and inflation forecasts and flagged downside risks.”
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