01 Maret 2016 4:35 AM
Felicity Emmett, Head of Australian Economics at ANZ, suggests that after the release of key partial indicators, they expect Australian Q4 GDP to have risen a modest 0.5% q/q and 2.6% y/y.Key Quotes
“The main new pieces of information since our preliminary forecast are: stronger-than-expected public spending and company profits, offset by weaker-than-expected inventories, wages and net exports.
Additionally, the broad-based weakness in the sales data released in Monday’s business indicators release suggests that the production measure of GDP is likely to have been soft in Q4. The extent of this weakness makes us think the risks to our GDP forecast are tilted slightly to the downside.
Once again, the volatility in GDP growth looks to have been driven by the contribution from net exports. Based on today’s Balance of Payments release, it has swung from +0.3ppts in Q1 to -0.9ppts in Q2 to +1.6ppts in Q3 to flat in Q4. The volatility in the quarterly data makes it more difficult to read the underlying momentum in the economy, but annual growth of 2.6% tells a story of ongoing sub-par growth.
If our forecast is correct, we do not see too many implications for monetary policy, given our estimate is broadly in line with the RBA’s 2½% y/y forecast in February’s Statement on Monetary Policy. That said, household spending growth in tomorrow’s report will be particularly important given the RBA’s ambitious expectation for growth to accelerate to above trend this year.”
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