Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD - UBS
The following are UBS' latest short-term trading strategies for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
EUR/USD: continues to move lower and the year's low is not that far away. We expect pressure to persist ahead of next week, although short-term accounts will likely be happy to book some profit. The US holiday this week may slow things down, but we see no reason to change strategy. Play the short side and add on any moves to this morning's high of 1.0651, with a stop at 1.0685.
AUD/USD: opened near the Friday high today but has since come off, with no clear catalyst for the move other than broad US dollar strength and possibly some short-term break out buyers cutting longs. The key pivot on the topside is 0.7250. With commodities trading soft, we prefer selling rallies as long as the pair is below 0.7250 in order to play the USD from the long side. Resistance comes in around 0.7210/20; support at 0.7135, 0.7100 and 0.7050.
NZD/USD: price action remains soft and the pair failed to rally on Friday, even with AUDUSD higher. We see NZDUSD heading lower and would stick to selling rallies between 0.6580 and 0.6650, with a stop above 0.6750. The first support comes in at 0.6500, followed by 0.6430 and 0.6240.
USD/CAD: Canadian September retail sales data on Friday disappointed, pointing to soft growth heading into Q4. Inflation was steady at 1%, suggesting that the central bank will keep monetary policy on hold next month even if US rates rise...The pair has been supported in Asia today and traded up to 1.3400, with crude oil selling off. We prefer sticking to longs and would continue to trail a stop up to 1.3250.
