Why 2016 will see recovery in prices of natural resources - Barclays's Barbara Byrne

Why 2016 will see recovery in prices of natural resources - Barclays's Barbara Byrne

20 November 2015, 14:50
Anton Voropaev
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Barbara Byrne, vice chairman of investment banking at Barclays Capital, considers that prices of natural resources will recover next year, mostly for political reasons.

"We will begin to see a recovery in the prices of natural resources for largely — and critically important — political reasons. We’re beginning to see sovereign wealth funds decline — Norway, Saudi Arabia."

"I think we’ll see a reversal on that; countries will not be able to afford fluctuations in their reserves. We’ll probably move to a more stable oil price, which I would say is $60 per barrel. And I think energy assets that are investing in sustainability at the same time that they’re focusing on meeting the needs of the current demands will probably do well."

This view is not supported by Goldman Sachs, however, whose analysts see commodities struggling for the upcoming 12 months.

The investment bank is maintaining its outlook for Brent crude oil at $50 a barrel and for U.S. WTI at $45 a barrel in 2016 due to the glut.

It expects gold to remain at $1,100 per ounce for the next three months, $1,050 an ounce for the next six months and $1,000 an ounce for the next 12 months.

Copper prices are forecast to drop to $4,800 a ton by end -2015 and to $4,500 a ton by end-2016.

Spot iron ore prices are expected to decline to $44 a ton next year and $40 a ton in 2017 from around $46 a ton now.

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