Trading News Events: Non-Farm Payrolls forecasts

Trading News Events: Non-Farm Payrolls forecasts

4 November 2015, 12:11
Sergey Golubev
1 319

Nomura made a forecast for NFP which will be issued this Friday expecting actual data to be 155K compare with 142K past data. It means that we can expect the downtrend during this high impacted news event but in secondary ranging way:

  • if 155K is real actual data compare with 142K past data so it may be good for currency (for USD in our case), and it means the EUR/USD will continuing with bearish trend with 1.0896 as the real bearish target;
  • but forecasting data for this event (179K) is more than 'proposed' by Nomura, and it means that we may see the ranging condition.

Thus, the price will go to downtrend but in fully ranging way.


2014-11-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 142K
  • forecast data is 179K
  • actual data is n/a (155K forecasting by Nomura)

if actual > forecast (or past data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.


EURUSD M5: 161 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event:
M5 chart

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