First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- As for the future of EUR/USD, most experts and graphical analysis insisted that the pair would move in the sideways corridor 1.1000 ÷ 1.1100. Even the US Federal Reserve decision on interest rates could not ruin this forecast - having collapsed on Wednesday evening by 160-plus points, by the end of the week the pair returned to the specified boundaries, completing the week at around 1.1000.
- As for the GBP/USD pair, about 80% of indicators and half of experts had voted for the a maximum drop to the support at 1.5200. But the remaining 50% of analysts and graphical analysis started talking about the sideways trend with resistance at the 1.5470 zone. It should be noted that they both turned out to be right: first, the pair gradually dropped down to the level of 1.5225, and then, following the EUR/USD pair, it went back to conquer the 1.5470 peak, which it did on Friday night.
- If we talk about USD/JPY, both experts and indicators identified a sideways corridor with support at 120.50 and resistance at 122.00.This did end up happening, except for the fact that the corridor "slipped" down about 50.0 points, finding itself within the 120.00 ÷ 121.50 range, with 120.50 acting as the pair’s Pivot Point.
- “Up and only up!”: that was the forecast for the USD/CHF pair. And the pair, of course, could not disappoint, and reached the height of 0.9950. Now only 50 points that separate it from the landmark value of 1.0000.
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The forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- Giving the forecast for the future of EUR/USD, only one (!) analyst predicts that the pair will grow to the level of 1.1200. All the others - both experts and indicators as well as graphical analysis - rely on the fact that the couple will "fall" into support in the area of 1.0800. Graphical analysis on H4 draws the following forecast: first the pair will fall to the support of 1.0955, then it will re-bounce to 1.1055 and only afterwards it will rush down and reach the bottom at 1.0600. But the pair will not rest there and will do everything to climb into the 1.0800 area.
- As for the GBP/USD pair, graphical analysis supported by experts predict some fluctuations within the 1.5440 ÷ 1.5470 boundaries at the beginning of the week, after which the pair, submitting to the pressure of the "bears", will have to go down. Graphical analysis on H4 suggests that the main support will be held at the 1.5315 level, while 33% of analysts insist that the fall will be stronger, and the bottom of the week will be at the level of 1.5250.
- Speaking of USD/JPY, the indicators on H4 and D1 maintain neutrality. As for the shorter time frames, they are predicting a slight decrease for the pair: towards 120.00, which has been a key level for this pair for the last 11 weeks. The graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this as well. The Pivot Point, with the consent of 70% of experts, will again pass through 121.50 and, in general, one should expect the pattern of the previous week to be repeated. At the same time a quarter of experts believe that the pair will not give up attempts to get even closer to the "top" of 122.00.
- “Up and only up!”: this was the forecast for the pair USD/CHF for the last week. This week’s forecast echoed the sentiment of the previous week:“Up and only up!”. Although experts and indicators on H1 and H4 do not rule out that the pair may take some time to break the zone 0.9810 ÷ 0.9900, the ultimate goal, in the end, remains the same: 1.0000 ÷ 1.0100. At the same time, if we talk about a longer term monthly forecast, 25% of analysts and graphical analysis at D1 warn that having taken the height of 1.0000, the "bulls" may become weaker, and the pair will retrace back to around 0.9500.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
