Weekly economic outlook October 12-16: macrostatistics & main events
Today, October 12, is Thanksgiving Day in Canada and Health-Sports Day in Japan. These markets are closed.
In general this Monday is a quiet day in almost all world markets. Only a few verbal interventions are expected: FOMC members Dennis Lockhart, Charles Evans and Lael Brainard are to speak today. The market participants will try to "catch" hints on what are the chances of the US Fed Reserve to raise rates in 2015.
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is also to speak today.
Tuesday, October 13, is promising to bring more events. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be released in Japan. The last meeting of the Bank of Japan made no surprise, therefore there is not much excitement about it, although it's a hint to watch the yen which may react to the official's policy opinions.
Important news are expected in China, which is one of the most important events this week: September data on Chinese Expert and Imports (YoY) and trade balance. These statistics are to suggest the slowdown of export and import processes in the world's second largest economy. The Chinese statistics will have direct impact on the commodity markets, so tomorrow we all watch oil and industrial metals, China being one of their largest consumers.
Next move to Europe. September data on German and UK CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be released tomorrow. These are important estimates that characterize inflation in the euro zone and UK. The market will watch the pound and euro upon this release. If CPI data from London is higher than expected (0.0% is expected, like the previous month), the pound has every chance to grow up with an optimistic view on the rates of the Bank of England.
ZEW economic sentiment to be released in Germany and the Euro area. Watch the region's stock market.
What we wait form US: Federal Budget Balance for September, James Bullard's speech (it's third FOMC's intervention since the beginning of the week) and Redbook (Retail Sales Index).
Quarterly results of Intel, Johnson&Johnson and JP Morgan Chase are to be released on Tuesday. These reports are going to set the tone on Wall Street.
Wednesday, October 14 CPI data coming from China. This is the second major release of the week. The Consumer Price Index will help investors estimate the efficiency of measures taken by Beijing for two months in a row.
CPI releases to follow in Europe: France, Spain and Italy. Investors will assess Mario Draghi's QE program results in terms of how it can accelerate inflation to the target level.
Important labor market data releases are scheduled in the UK: average earnings, claimant count unemployment change, ILO unemployment. Data better than expected will give reason for optimism as of the increase in the Bank of England rates.
The August data on industrial production are to be released in Euro area.
Three key parameters are scheduled in the United States: Redbook, producer price index and retail sales. This data are a base for the Fed to asses how strong the country's inflation is and whether there are preconditions for an early (before the end of 2015) rates rise. Investors focus on the dollar upon these releases.
Figures on inventories, and weekly oil reserves (according to API) are highly expected: the energy market sentiments depend on them.
Third-quarter reports of Wells Fargo and Netflix are also scheduled on Wednesday.
Thursday, October 15 is to produce major events in the Asia-Pacific region. New Zealand's Business Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is to be released here.
Australian labor market data may affect AUDUSD.
Japan, number two economy in the region, is to publish data on industrial production. Considering that Japan's high-tech production is the country's major export item, these figures (if differ much from expected once), will also affect the USDJPY rate, and the country's stock market.
More key inflation indicators are to come in United States. The core consumer prices expected on Thursday is perhaps the most important measure of inflation.
Another important indicator is the the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing activity in October. It is expected to be 1% down (due to the season character and general economic climate).
Energy markets will wait for the official report on the volume of natural gas, reserves of crude oil and distillates according to the IEA.
More reports to come from Goldman Sachs, Mattel, Philip Morris, Unilever.
Finally, Friday, October 16, will have low major activity in the markets.
The day will begin with New Zealand's third-quarter CPI.
Core CPI will be published for Eurozone - watch EURUSD and the stock markets.
Industrial production readings are to be released in United States.
Investors expect General Electric's third-quarter reports.
