Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (September 28 - October 2, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair fell 200 pips last week - almost touching the support line at 1.1100. Price then bounced 180 pips, only to correct lower again. Price action reveals that bulls are still making noticeable attempts to push price upwards in the context of a downtrend, so this week is likely to witness serious volatility as bulls continue to make their presence felt, though it will not jeopardize the extant bearish bias unless the resistance line at 1.1300 is broken.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDCHF moved upwards in a directional mode last week - breaking above the resistance level at 0.9800, but closing below it at the end of the week. The short-selling that occurred on September 24 simply provided an opportunity to go long at better prices. Unless EURUSD experiences a significant bullish movement, USDCHF cannot plunge significantly, so whatever happens to USDCHF this week will be determined by the movement of EURUSD.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Following comments in the last forecast that this pair would have difficulty going upwards, price dropped almost 400 pips last week to test the accumulation territory at 1.5150. The same sentiment remains valid this week, so any rallies should be viewed as good opportunities to enter short at better levels. Price is expected to continue south at least another 200 pips this week - targeting the accumulation territories at 1.5100 and 1.5000.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
There is still no clear directional movement on this pair, so swing and position traders should stay away until there is a strong breakout. However, that makes things ideal for scalpers and intraday traders. Most of this month has been trendless, so a breakout of at least 300 pips is needed to confirm a strong trend.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
EURJPY first moved down 200 pips, then reverted to a gradual climb on September 23. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market that will remain valid unless price can get above the supply zone at 136.00. Once that supply zone is overcome, the outlook will become bullish but, until then, this is a bear market. Any rally is therefore likely to be deceptive.

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

“I do not trade for sport or hobby. I trade for a living. So it is important for me to quantify trading opportunities and determine that I do in fact have an edge before I enter a position.” - Rob Hanna

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