EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - waiting to break the levels

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.19 06:54

Chair Yellen is not speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium this year:

• "While our economist Michelle Girard thinks the Fed may disappoint on giving a “firm” signal, which would fit with their data dependent outlook, she sees a risk that the FOMC minutes begin to put a greater emphasis on the pace of hikes being gradual. A clear discussion along those lines may be a “soft signal” that an earlier start to rate hikes, giving more assurance that a gradual pace can be taken, is the preferred path of the FOMC’s majority."
  
• "Because the meeting took place before China’s devaluation, that discussion should not come up in the FOMC July minutes."
  
• "It’s also too early for that impact to be seen in the July CPI, which is the key data release tomorrow in the US ahead of the FOMC minutes. Our economists see the risks to the y/y rate as slightly on the upside – a “high” 0.2% m/m edge up in the core CPI index could push the y/y rate up from 1.8% to 1.9% y/y."

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.20 08:34

Time To Turn Bullish On EUR - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)

EUR will be on bullish, and the main reason for CS to decide it is the still-high risk that the ECB may have to re-enter the easing fray down the line:

"For example, as Exhibit 2 shows, European inflation breakevens have also been falling recently. With the ECB's credibility is on the line as it proceeds with its QE program, it is hard to imagine it standing pat for long and allowing sustained EUR strength to provide a fresh reason for these indicators to push still lower."

By the way - EUR/USD was already turned to bullish in intra-day basis: