The KBC Bank Research Teamviews that with consensus remaining optimistic for the NFP print, and the recent US data coming out mixed, a slight disappointment may be felt from today’s payrolls data.
Key Quotes
“The consensus expects employment growth at 230.000 (from 252.0000). The unemployment rate (expected unchanged at 5.6%) and the average hourly earnings (expected 1.9% Y/Y from 1.7% Y/Y) have also potential to move the markets.”
“The consensus remains high/optimistic even as other recent US data were more mixed. So, a (slight?) disappointment is possible.”
“In theory, this should be negative for the dollar, too. However, of late, the market reaction of both EUR/USD and USD/JPY to eco data or other news was often far from straightforward.”
“We also keep a close eye at the reaction of core bond yields. If bond markets would ignore a disappointing payrolls report, the damage for the dollar could stay limited.”
Key Quotes
“The consensus expects employment growth at 230.000 (from 252.0000). The unemployment rate (expected unchanged at 5.6%) and the average hourly earnings (expected 1.9% Y/Y from 1.7% Y/Y) have also potential to move the markets.”
“The consensus remains high/optimistic even as other recent US data were more mixed. So, a (slight?) disappointment is possible.”
“In theory, this should be negative for the dollar, too. However, of late, the market reaction of both EUR/USD and USD/JPY to eco data or other news was often far from straightforward.”
“We also keep a close eye at the reaction of core bond yields. If bond markets would ignore a disappointing payrolls report, the damage for the dollar could stay limited.”
