The Italian crisis saga is not over. The economy has consistently grown at a slower pace than the euro zone due to structural inefficiencies while heavy pressures induced by the European Commission with regard to the budget deficit target is expected to resume in 2H 2019...
1st April and the UK remains part of the EU. I guess the joke is on us. However, the sterling is no longer getting the “kick the can” bounce...
A US-China trade deal is close. Adherence to the spirit of the deal will be difficult; the countries have completely different economic systems that will not converge by ending punitive tariffs and buying more planes. Most appreciation of CNY has already occurred...
It has been a busy week in the House of Commons as the deadline set by the EU for the UK’s exit from the EU is approaching at lightning speed. UK lawmakers will be voting on Theresa May’s Brexit plan for the third time this year, on January 15th and on March 12th...
Many of us are watching markets and Brexit chaos wondering why risk premia is not fully priced. Not only does uncertainty over EU-UK relationship threaten 20% of the global economy but economic data continued to indicated that the global decelerations is lasting longer than expected...
Yesterday evening was a total disaster in the House of Commons. After hours of discussion, MPs passed on all eights Brexit alternatives put to vote. As expected the “no deal” plan B didn’t receive much love (160 for and 400 against), just as the “revocation to avoid no deal” (184 versus 293...
News on the Forex Factory is a lot. Sometimes we see red news, but the impact is not as large as any. Sometimes see the orange news, but the big effect is on the market...
It is going to be long day for UK lawmakers, as the Commons will start voting on alternatives on Wednesday. This morning, each MP will have to choose which alternatives he/she wants to back. Afterwards, the alternative with the highest support will win...
A quiet Asian session as equity markets staged a mild recovery ahead of Brexit uncertainty. The increased probability of a soft or no Brexit has encouraged investors. However, this one will clearly go down to the wire...
To watchers of the US Federal Reserve, the biggest surprise lately was an announcement to end balance sheet reduction in September. This should keep assets near USD3.5 trillion, significantly higher than previously indicated...
After the UK Parliament took control of Brexit on Monday, the pound sterling stabilised at around USD 1.32, showing that all options remain on the table...
The US economy is decelerating as the boost stimulated by tax cuts begins to dwindle and the trade war with China begins to bite...
Just like in the Greek mythology, where Siren lures sailors to destruction with the sweetness of her song, Oil and her sweet promise of adrenaline rush sends many traders to their demise...
Not much is moving in markets today. Drivers have been on repeat for so long investors are suffering from boredom. FX volatility has declined significantly of the past week but GBP volatility remains least effected. Cleary the lower pace fall is due to critical political premiums still relevant...
The last FOMC meeting left undeniable after-effects on investors’ mind-set. The last two days of trading clearly shows that market participants don’t know where to stand. Equities rallied sharply yesterday afternoon with the S&P 500 climbing more than 1% to around 2,854, gold sliding 1...
Markets participants broadly expected the FOMC to be quite dovish. They were right. Back in December last year, it was considered reasonable to expect at least one rate hike in 2019...
There is a high probability that Prime Minster May will pass out due to g-force in the British politics. The UK is hurling towards Brexit with no steering or brakes, so can someone call Denzel Washington, please (see classi film "Unstoppable...
Despite the chaos unfolding in the UK, market volatility has eased ahead of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. Perhaps the only assets showing real directional momentum are lean hog futures, which hit a new high...
Expectations for global inflation continue to decrease as deflationary pressure mount. This indicated that the Fed will unlikely be challenged by suspected inflation over 2% target. The ECB in reactions slashed its 2019 forecast for both economic growth and inflation...
