Demonstrations in Hong Kong over the extradition bill might be overshadowed by activity in the local FX market. Hong Kong dollar has risen to its strongest level against the USD in today trading at HIBOR has surged...
We always felt Trump tariff on Mexican goods was a bluff. However, coming off unending negative headlines, the move was plausible enough. If the rumor is true in a closed-door meeting over the Republicans threatened to block Trump Mexico widen ranging tariffs...
The negative market reaction following the escalation of the US-China trade tensions has yet to prompt either side to rush back to the negotiation table, but the US Fed signaled its willingness to cut interest rates if the economy gets hurt...
This week provided the collapse of Fed interest rate expectations and thereof US bond yields. Among others, Fed Bullard and Powell delivered a clear indication of their dovish bias...
Times have become difficult for December-elected President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. US President unexpected threat of implementing tariffs on all exports to the US set for next Monday as well as recent Fitch downgrade and Moody’s negative outlook could push the country into a recession...
The change in tone from the South African Reserve Bank is more than understandable. Although Cyril Ramaphosa emerged victorious from general elections, political, structural and growth uncertainties weigh on the South African economy and ultimately its currency, which is losing steam this week...
The one-two punch of St. Louis Fed Bullard and Chair Powell could have not been clearer. The Fed now has a dovish tilt. Yesterday Powell remarked that given the lack of inflation pressure emulating for the US economy, the Fed has the right and ability to target economic growth...
The decision made by the Reserve Bank of Australian to cut its Cash rate by a quarter-percentage point to historical low 1.25% came as expected. The statement made by RBA Governor Philip Lowe two weeks ago already signaled the intention...
The market has shifted into a defensive position as risks to the downside have increased. US Treasury yields came under pressure pushing 3m – 10Y spreads deeper into the inverted territory. USD was sold as St...
EURCHF dropped sharply to 1.11197 low, breaking below key technical support levels. Trades will have to go back to 2017 to find new levels. With political risk premia rising in Europe, participants are rotating into the closest safe-haven trade...
In September 2018 President Trump put a 10% tax on a long list of imports from China. In May 2019 the tax was raised to 25%. The list of items runs to 194 pages. Reading through it is a slightly weird experience...
Japan has the longest period of growth in post-war history. From June the US will have the longest period of growth in post-war history. Global unemployment is around a forty-year low. This hints that the economic cycle is quite old. Economic growth does not die of old age...
The resumption of trade war headlines has pushed JPY into demand, as optimism over a potential recovery of world economies along 2H 2019 is mitigated...
n the G10 yields are falling. In the U.S, there have been periods were inverted yields curves have not to lead to an economic recession. However, never has a recession transpired without an inverted yield curve...
The trend in USD/CAD has been quite dull since last month Fed meeting. The pair has remained within the range of 1.35 – 1.34 (+0.40% month-to-date) despite acceleration in trade war headlines...
On Wednesday morning, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen were the only currency to gain ground against the greenback as investors fled from risky assets amid heightened tensions between the US and China. USD/CHF erased partially yesterday gains as it returned towards parity, down 0.20% to 1...
The recent release of European elections results, although mostly feared by most investors, finally came in better than expected...
Despite the tense situation on the international stage, the latest batch of economic data from Switzerland surprised to the upside. However, the Swiss franc failed to catch any bid as it traded sideways against the greenback around 1.0040...
Today, the market activity will be limited due to the US holidays. Bitcoin rallied to $8’700 on the back of rising concerns over US and China trade tensions. Asia shares were mixed, yet Shanghai fell on Chinas industrial firms fell in April, highlight slowing growth...
