Brexit is going down to the wire. We are hurtling towards 29 March with scant evidence the EU-UK are closer to resolution. Political brinkmanship has damaged GBP (although Euro has not performed well either), with traders selling upticks and buying low volatility...
The Swiss economy remains robust and Swiss companies are optimistic, with order backlogs, stable employment and high capacity utilization. Inflation was quiet in January, with headline consumer prices +0.60% and -0.30% in yearly and monthly terms. Overall prices advanced 0.50% annually (prior: 0...
Three months ahead of general elections, the new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Das surprised the marketplace with a rate cut of 0.25%, putting the Current Rate at 6.25%. No change had been expected...
50 days before the official divorce of the UK from the EU, it seems that nothing has fundamentally evolved from 2 months ago, when controversies over the initial Withdrawal Agreement forced Prime Minister Theresa May to postpone the vote to January 2019...
Inflation outlook cuts by the Bank of Japan for 2019 don’t seem to bother investors, who are favouring JPY as a safe haven currency, after US President Trump’s State of the Union address that didn’t provide any news on trade talks with China...
After rising as much as 1% yesterday, the Australian dollar tumbled to 0.7125 against the greenback on Wednesday morning after an unexpected dovish switch from the central bank...
US equity markets have recovered sharply since, however, headwinds remain. US stocks moved quickly from over-bought to over-sold, as investors’ worries over US recession, trade tensions and Fed tighter monetary policy faded...
Despite a rise in inventories, crude prices continue to gain ground. All three crude oil futures – Brent, WTI and Shanghai – have bounced from their lows of December 2018, up 16.13%, 20.17% and 15.03% year-to-date...
Australia’s central bank’s (RBA) first policy meeting of the year is not opening in the best conditions. Unpleasant news from both home and foreign markets are weighing on the economy while optimism on growth is fading. Despite repeated intentions to raise its cash rate (currently at 1...
The Eurozone is walking a tightrope. Q4 2018 data suggests the European economy is growing slowly amid softer Chinese demand, Sino-American discord and a Brexit stalemate. After a 2018 yearly GDP gain of 1.20%, a 5-year low, inflation appears to have picked up...
European economic growth continues to show weakness: it grew 0.20% from the third to the fourth quarter of 2018 to post a yearly gain of 1.20%, a 5-year low and well below the European Central Bank forecast of 2%. There is little upside margin for EU growth...
Even the euro was very little changed from the buck at $1.1452, in front of some series of PMI readings from the other side of the area. It climbed to 52.4 in 51.1 in December...
USD/CNY dropped 2.20% since the beginning of the year on US-China trade optimism, USD softness and China’s manufacturing rebound. However, the USD/CNY could rapidly turn north, as a trade deal with the US, China’s by far largest trade partner, would significantly reduce its trade surplus...
Given yesterday’s decision of the US Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates, US dollar weakness for 2019 is on track. The Fed decelerated monetary policy and its tightening path, and it gave a very strong signal that interest rate cycle is finished...
2019 started with a cautious outlook. Outside the US-China trade tensions, worries centred on the effect of the US Federal Reserve tightening. Normalization came when risk appetite was shaky and valuations for stocks and bond were elevated...
We don’t see how GBP can maintain its strength. Too much uncertainty: GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3112, approaching 1.3065 short-term. UK Prime Minister Theresa May says she’ll return to Brussels to convince the European Council to remove the Northern Ireland backstop. Yeah, right...
Markets seems less concerned with EUR/GBP and GBP/USD as 1-month volatility remains low. The European Central Bank is cautious, expected to launch new liquidity facility. While it is not directly focused on Brexit risk, it does help backstop overall European risk...
Despite a 2018 that included trade sanction escalations, a sharp drop in emerging currencies, fears of a global economic slowdown and a hawkish Fed, Swiss exports reached CHF 233.1 billion (+5.70%), a new record and the highest percentage gain since 2010...
