The single currency is under pressure: inflation stagnates while confidence indicators contract and January retail sales figures revised at 0.30% yearly and -1.40% monthly from initial estimates of 2.20% and 1.30...
The AUD/USD pair hit a two-month low as the Australian economy grew by 2.30% in December 2018, its weakest pace since June 2017. Expectations of 2.80% were greatly missed, suggesting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s growth outlook of 3% in 2019 should be downgraded soon...
On Wednesday morning, the US dollar was better bid against most of its peers despite the Fed dovish U-turn. The greenback rose the most against the Australian dollar, with AUD/USD down 0.72% to $0.7030, amid disappointing growth figures for the fourth quarter (2.3%y/y versus 2.6% exp. and 2...
The economies of France and Germany are slightly recovering. Italy’s annual GDP figures indicate a technical recession: mid-duration yields are starting to tick upwards with 10-years at 2.75%. That’s 1% below Greece (highest in EU), but Greek yields are falling while Italy’s are heading higher...
Today China’s National People’s Congress reduced its economic growth target to 6.00-6.50%, announced a policy of “easing for stability” and initiated meaningful tax cuts. Policy remains focused on fiscal stimulus over credit expansion...
The pound has staged a decent rally against the USD and EUR in the past weeks, and 1-month implied volatility has fallen further. But uncertainty on Brexit is extreme. Extension of Article 50, thus reducing the likelihood for UK crashing out of EU, is questionable...
Hurdles remain, but it looks like a Sino-American trade deal is on the way. China is offering reduction of restrictions, including tariffs on food, chemical and autos while the USA is reconsidering its sanctions on Chinese products in place since last year...
Asian stocks were higher across the board today as the MSC Index said it would increase weightings of Chinese mainland shares in its EM index, which is followed by over USD 2 trillion of assets. This is a meaningful shift: EM stocks and FX responds to flows...
The Bank of Japan says that inflation is accelerating and does not need expansive monetary policy, but the economy is expected to weaken further. GDP growth was 0% for 2018, including a contraction of -2.60% in Q3. Momentum is fading: the manufacturing PMI fell for the first time in 2.5 years...
Rising 30% since lows of December, crude oil has gained following the last OPEC meeting of last year. Production was curbed 1.53 million barrels per day in January, as Saudi Arabia cut supply, despite the USA production peak of 12 million bpd...
US Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday told the US Senate’s Banking Committee that the Fed has definitely changed its monetary policy: it will now be “data dependent” and “patient”...
GBP appreciated against G10 currencies and by 0.70% against both the greenback and EUR, with the pound highest against the single currency since May 2017. Currently trading at 1.3172, GBP/USD is heading along 1.32 short-term...
After six days of intensive trade discussions that extended over the weekend, the US and China appear to have made significant progress. President Donald Trump has announced that the US will delay imposing further trade tariffs on Chinese goods...
Global manufacturing and trade continue to show signs of weakness. Last week's Japanese balance of trade in goods for January showed a deficit, versus expectations for a surplus. The fall was caused by a sharp decline in nominal exports. Those to China dropped 17...
Last week’s main event was the publication of January’s FOMC meeting minutes. Even though the release was anxiously awaited, investors’ reaction was quite muted...
After the Bank of Japan cut its 2019 outlook for core inflation, the rate has improved, with the core gauge at 0.80% (prior: 0.70%) in January. Yet private consumption in the country declined in January, while a February manufacturing PMI of 48...
US-China trade discussions are making progress. Six memoranda of understanding are in draft that cover technology transfer and cyber theft, intellectual property rights, currency, agriculture and non-tariff barriers to trade. Expectations are that a 1 March tariff-hike will be avoided...
