+145,437 USD — Even after taking losses on USD/JPY, everything was fully recovered with GOLD… The true leader of the mar
The real leader of the market has completely changed. If you're still watching only USD/JPY, that’s becoming very dangerous.
✅ Weekly Performance (April 13 – April 17)
📊 Realized Profit This Week: +145,437 USD
🔍 This Week’s Market Environment
The key drivers of the market remained:
These three factors continued to dominate everything.
Major Asset Moves
GOLD
→ Continued rising as the dollar weakened
Safe-haven buying remained strong
USD/JPY
→ Stronger dollar selling pushed the pair lower
Failed to break above 160.00 and quickly lost momentum
CRUDE OIL
→ No clear trend
A nervous range market waiting for the next major catalyst
🎯 Trading Strategy for Next Week
The biggest turning point will be:
This is the key event.
Depending on the result, the market could split sharply in two directions.
Case ①: Negotiations improve
- Oil declines
- Dollar selling accelerates
- Stocks rise
- Risk-on sentiment continues
Case ②: Negotiations stall again
- Oil spikes sharply
- Dollar buying returns
- Risk-off sentiment rises
Plan for next week
- Prioritize news headlines above all else
- Wait for confirmation before trading USD/JPY
- Watch the Strait of Hormuz situation closely for oil
- Monitor GOLD as a geopolitical thermometer
- Focus only on the main battlefield and avoid unnecessary trades
“Don’t predict — confirm first, then follow.”
■ FX WEEKLY REVIEW
April 13 – 17 Review
& Market Scenario for the Week of April 20
■ Weekly Summary
If I had to describe this week’s FX market in one sentence:
The flow looked like this:
↓
Ceasefire expectations
↓
Negotiation difficulties
↓
Oil rises
↓
Renewed negotiation expectations
↓
Oil falls
↓
Dollar drops sharply
In the first half of the week, safe-haven dollar buying dominated, pushing USD/JPY toward the upper 159s. However, it failed to break above 160.00, and the heavy resistance at the top became increasingly obvious.
Later, as expectations for renewed negotiations grew stronger, oil prices declined. The market quickly shifted into dollar selling, rising equities, and risk-on sentiment.
EUR/USD climbed into the 1.18 zone, and EUR/JPY also pushed to fresh highs.
■ Biggest event into the weekend
Normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
This triggered simultaneous oil selling, dollar selling, and equity buying, sending USD/JPY sharply lower toward the low 157s.
However, this is not a full resolution. Military tensions have not fully disappeared, maritime blockade risks still remain, and negotiations are still ongoing.
This should be viewed not as a complete solution, but as temporary relief.
■ Major Technical Shift This Week
The biggest change this week was:
■ U.S. Dollar
Direction: Weak
MA: Strong Sell
RSI: Around 40
MACD: Still pointing lower
→ Outside of geopolitical panic, the dollar remains easy to sell. The sell-on-rallies structure continues.
■ Euro
Direction: Extremely Strong
MA: Strong Buy
RSI: Above 60
→ Currently the leading currency. Dips are likely to be bought aggressively.
■ British Pound
Direction: Strong
→ Uptrend continues, but caution is needed near the highs.
■ Australian Dollar
Direction: Very Strong
→ Much stronger than expected. One of the best-performing commodity currencies.
■ Japanese Yen
Direction: Improving
This is the most important point.
It is no longer “only the yen is weak.” With dollar weakness, falling oil prices, and risk rebalancing, the yen is starting to recover.
■ Most Important Point
Previously, the market was continuous yen selling and broad cross-yen strength. But now it is shifting toward:
Dollar selling ＋ Yen buying
This is no longer a market where you can blindly buy cross-yen pairs. Misreading this can lead to major mistakes.
■ Key Themes for Next Week
- Is the ceasefire real?
If this breaks down, the market could reverse violently. - Oil direction
Everything depends on the Strait of Hormuz situation. Oil movement directly impacts USD/JPY. - Continued dollar weakness
If it continues, dollar pairs could extend much further. - Sustainability of yen buying
If it continues, cross-yen upside becomes very dangerous. - UK CPI & Japan CPI
These will be key events for GBP and JPY direction.
■ Next Week’s Expected Scenarios
Main Scenario
Ceasefire continues → Oil declines → Dollar selling continues → Yen buying resumes
→ USD/JPY toward 157
Second Scenario
Negotiations worsen → Oil spikes → Dollar buying returns → Yen selling resumes
→ Another challenge toward 160
Rare Case
Full agreement → Broad dollar weakness
→ EUR/USD surges sharply
■ Currency-by-Currency Bias
Sell rallies
Top-tier strength
Buy the dips
Strong but caution near highs
Neutral to slightly bullish
Leading currency
Very strong
Improving
Not bad
Extremely strong
■ Important Events This Week
| Day | Event |
|---|---|
| Monday | Canada CPI |
| Tuesday | New Zealand CPI / UK Employment Data / U.S. Retail Sales / Ceasefire-related headlines |
| Wednesday | UK CPI |
| Thursday | PMI / Finance Minister comments |
| Friday | Japan CPI |
■ Final Thoughts
The force controlling the market right now is dollar weakness.
Strong currencies are:
- Euro
- Pound
- Australian Dollar
- Swiss Franc
Weak currency:
- U.S. Dollar
And most importantly:
If you miss this, you may miss the top in cross-yen pairs.
The true essence of next week is:
And
Will yen buying continue?
■ Closing Note: Music Changes Decisions
This week’s market was one where a single headline could completely reverse the flow. In this kind of environment, what matters most is:
Trading results are not determined by strategy alone.
Anxiety, stress, lack of sleep, and mental fatigue can cause you to jump into trades too early and delay cutting losses when you should exit.
Recently, more attention has been given to music therapy.
Research suggests that music does more than improve mood. It can increase blood flow in the brain and activate areas responsible for emotional control and decision-making. It may also improve sleep quality and help reduce stress and inflammation.
In other words:
If you want better decisions, you must first improve the condition of your brain.
The same is true in trading.
The best traders, before they even look at charts, already focus on:
- Creating an environment where they can concentrate
- Blocking unnecessary noise
- Having routines that help them stay calm
One of those tools can simply be music.
Quiet piano music, ambient background sounds, anything that helps you stay centered is enough.
The market changes every day. But traders who know how to manage their own state do not collapse easily in any market.
