💱 USD/JPY Nears the 150 Barrier — Market Split Between Breakout and Pullback
◆ Market Overview
The stronger-than-expected U.S. Q2 GDP revision boosted dollar buying, sending USD/JPY to 149.93 in New York and 149.96 in Tokyo, just shy of the psychological 150 level.
Heavy selling capped the advance, pulling the pair down to 149.62, but a rebound followed, with London trade stabilizing around the 149.80s.
Support also came from the U.S. 10-year yield, which climbed back near 4.20%.
👉 Market focus remains firmly on whether USD/JPY can break above 150.
◆ Other Currencies
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EUR/USD: Heavy tone in the upper 1.16s, as dollar strength keeps pressure on the euro.
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GBP/USD: Rose from 1.3330 to 1.3359 before slipping back into the 1.3340s, reflecting a choppy and fragile tone.
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Cross-yen: Euro/JPY regained the 175 handle. GBP/JPY touched 200.21 before retreating to the 200 area, showing nervous price action tied to USD/JPY’s strength.
London afternoon levels:
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USD/JPY: 149.80
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EUR/USD: 1.1754
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GBP/USD: 1.3350s
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GBP/JPY: 200.00
✅ Two Scenarios at the 150 Threshold
📈 Scenario 1: Breakout Above 150
Drivers:
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Upbeat U.S. GDP revision confirms resilient growth.
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U.S. long yields remain elevated, underpinning the dollar.
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Market sentiment leans toward testing the psychological barrier.
Strategy:
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Buy dips at 149.50–149.60
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Short-term target: 150.20–150.50
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Stop-loss: below 148.90
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A clean break could trigger stop-buying and accelerate gains.
📉 Scenario 2: Rejection at 150
Drivers:
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150 is a key psychological and intervention watch zone.
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Ahead of the weekend, profit-taking and position adjustments are likely.
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Key events (e.g., U.S. jobs report) may keep traders cautious on fresh dollar longs.
Strategy:
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Sell rallies at 149.80–149.90
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Short-term target: 149.20–149.40
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Stop-loss: above 150.10
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A “buy the rumor, sell the fact” dynamic could drive a pullback toward the low 149s.
🔑 Takeaway
The broader bias remains dollar-bullish / yen-bearish, but 150 is a decisive inflection point.
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A breakout could unleash momentum buying.
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A rejection may spark a sharp reversal.
👉 Traders should stay nimble and prepare for both outcomes as the market tests this critical level.
