📊 Middle East Conflict Shows No Sign of Ending — USD/JPY Approaches 160, Heightening Intervention Risk
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📊 Middle East Conflict Shows No Sign of Ending — USD/JPY Approaches 160, Heightening Intervention Risk

13 3月 2026, 10:54
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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📊 Middle East Conflict Shows No Sign of Ending — USD/JPY Approaches 160, Heightening Intervention Risk

■ Market Overview

Tensions in the Middle East continue with no clear sign of resolution.

After Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader of Iran, emphasized retaliation and Donald Trump, President of the United States, issued hardline remarks, safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar intensified.

As a result, USD/JPY climbed to 159.69, pushing the FX market into what traders view as a danger zone for possible currency intervention.

■ Foreign Exchange Market

USD/JPY has moved into the upper 159 range.

The pair has now broken above the previous “rate-check” level around 159.45, which had been associated with potential intervention warnings.

This has increased speculation about:

  • Official verbal warnings against yen weakness

  • Direct FX intervention

Some market participants now believe the intervention zone could lie around 160–162.

However, because the current dollar strength is largely driven by geopolitical safe-haven demand, some analysts believe intervention targeting USD/JPY alone may have limited impact.

■ Middle East Situation

The conflict remains highly tense.

Key drivers include:

  • Hardline statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader

  • President Trump mentioning the possibility of regime change

These developments have increased geopolitical risk, leading to broad U.S. dollar buying across major currencies.

■ Key Events Today

U.S. Economic Data

Today features a large batch of U.S. economic indicators.

Key releases include:

  • Durable Goods Orders

  • Revised GDP

  • Personal Income and Spending

  • PCE Price Index (important)

  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

  • JOLTS Job Openings

Market Expectations

Indicator Forecast
PCE YoY +2.9%
Core PCE YoY +3.1%
JOLTS Job Openings 6.75 million

Depending on the results, movements in U.S. yields could drive the dollar’s direction.

Europe / United Kingdom

  • UK Industrial Production

  • UK Manufacturing Production

  • UK Trade Balance

  • Eurozone Industrial Production

Canada

  • Employment Data

  • Capacity Utilization

  • Manufacturing Sales

■ Monetary Policy

Ahead of next week’s policy meetings, both the:

  • Federal Reserve

  • European Central Bank

are currently in their blackout period, meaning officials are avoiding comments on monetary policy.

■ Summary

The dominant market theme remains:

“Middle East conflict × Stronger dollar × Weaker yen.”

USD/JPY has now entered levels associated with potential intervention, meaning markets may react sharply to:

  • Middle East developments

  • Statements from President Trump

  • Actions or signals from the Japanese government

As a result, the FX market is likely to remain highly sensitive and volatile in the near term.


#Mojtaba, Khamenei