USD/JPY Volatility Aftermath Continues | Battle Around the 157 Level Under Intervention Risk

USD/JPY Volatility Aftermath Continues | Battle Around the 157 Level Under Intervention Risk

■ Overview

Yesterday, USD/JPY saw a historic move:

• 160.72 → 155.57 (over 5 yen drop)
  → Triggered by strong verbal intervention from Japanese authorities

Today:

• Rebounded to the low 157 range and holding firm

👉 The market is now clearly:

“Waiting for the next move from authorities”

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■ FX Moves

• USD/JPY: recovered from 155 → 157 range
• US Dollar Index: volatile, then back near 98

👉 This is not a USD-driven market

👉 It is a USD/JPY-driven market

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■ Core Market Structure

“Intervention risk dominates everything”

• When price rises → intervention fear caps upside
• When price falls → dip buying emerges

👉 Result:

No sustained directional trend

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■ Key Levels

• 50% retracement: 158.15
  → Important reference level
• 160.00
  → Strongest intervention warning zone

👉 This area is extremely sensitive

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■ Key Drivers Ahead

• Timing of the next move by Japanese authorities
• Oil prices (Middle East influence)
• Thin liquidity (Labor Day period)

👉 Combination:

Low liquidity × intervention risk = high volatility

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■ Scenarios

① Move toward 158

→ Verbal or actual intervention risk increases
→ Upside capped

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② Renewed JPY weakness

→ Retest of 160
→ High probability of intervention

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③ Range continuation (most likely)

→ 156 – 158 range

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■ Key Event Today

• ISM Manufacturing PMI
  → Forecast: 53.2

👉 However:

The real driver remains USD/JPY itself

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■ Strategy

• Avoid large positions
• Respect key levels (158 / 160)
• Focus on short-term trading

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■ Conclusion

This is now:

“A market driven by authorities, not fundamentals”

• If it rises → it gets capped
• If it falls → it rebounds

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👉 The most important edge now is:

Identifying intervention zones — not predicting trends