分析と予測

🗞️ Crisis Risk Persists — Stocks Plunge, Dollar Buying Continues but FX Turns Nervous

4 3月 2026, 10:09
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
0
2

🗞️ Crisis Risk Persists — Stocks Plunge, Dollar Buying Continues but FX Turns Nervous

🌍 Market Theme

“Risk Aversion” and “Renewed Inflation Concerns”

In the Middle East, exchanges of attacks between the U.S., Israel, and Iran continue.
President Donald Trump warned that the war could potentially “last forever,” raising fears that the conflict may become prolonged.

As a result, risk-off sentiment has rapidly intensified across global financial markets.

📉 Equity Markets: Panic Selling

Global equity markets are experiencing sharp declines.

  • Nikkei: Down more than 2,000 points intraday

  • Korean equities: Consecutive days of double-digit declines

  • Thai stock market: Temporary trading halt triggered

What began as the typical initial crisis sell-off at the start of the week is now evolving into a more structural wave of selling, reflecting concerns about a prolonged war.

Markets are increasingly worried about:

  • Rising inflation pressures

  • A potential global economic slowdown

💱 FX Market Dynamics

The basic structure currently unfolding is:

Falling equities → USD buying → Cross-yen weakness

🔹 USD/JPY

  • Trading nervously around the 157 area

  • Supported by crisis-driven USD buying

However, several opposing forces are interacting:

  • Safe-haven USD demand

  • Intervention concerns from Japanese authorities

  • Occasional safe-haven JPY buying

These dynamics are creating a volatile and sensitive trading environment.

🔹 Cross-Yen

European currencies and the Australian dollar are weakening.

As a result, cross-yen pairs tend to drift lower, reflecting yen strength during risk-off phases.

📊 Key Economic Data Tonight

  • Switzerland CPI

  • Eurozone PPI

  • Eurozone unemployment rate

  • Final services PMI across several economies

🇺🇸 United States

  • ADP Employment Report (February)

  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

These are important indicators ahead of Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, and could influence short-term USD/JPY direction.

⚠ However, these are February data and likely do not yet reflect the impact of the Middle East conflict.

🎙 Central Bank Speakers

Several ECB officials are scheduled to speak:

  • François Villeroy de Galhau

  • Luis de Guindos

  • Piero Cipollone

  • Madis Müller

In the U.S.:

  • John C. Williams

  • Neel Kashkari

Later tonight, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will be released, potentially shaping expectations regarding the timing of rate cuts.

🔎 Summary

Markets are currently driven by two dominant themes:

① Geopolitical risk
② Renewed inflation concerns

The prevailing structure is:

Equity sell-off → Dollar strength → Cross-yen weakness

However, USD/JPY remains particularly sensitive, as multiple forces collide:

  • Crisis-driven dollar buying

  • Japanese intervention risk

  • Safe-haven yen demand

For the time being, markets are likely to remain headline-driven and highly reactive.


#ISM, Index, non-manufacturing