🗞️ Focus on U.S. Jobs Report — Yen Buying Dominates Asia Ahead of the Event
■ Asian Session: Broad Yen Strength Driven by Position Unwinding
In today’s Asian trading, the yen strengthened across the board.
The main driver was the unwinding of previously accumulated positions following the Lower House election. Markets had built up:
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Expectations of a ruling party victory
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Anticipation of aggressive fiscal policy under a continued Takaichi administration
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Concerns over fiscal deterioration
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Resulting yen-short positioning
With the election now behind us, those yen-selling positions are being reduced.
📉 Key Price Moves
USD/JPY
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Fell below 153
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Softened to around 152.80 at one point
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Down more than 1.5 yen from the previous NY close
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Lowest level since January 29
EUR/JPY
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Broke below 183
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Dropped to around 182.22
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Down more than 1.4 yen from the prior NY close
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Also the lowest since January 29
The move was largely driven by short-term players covering yen-short positions.
■ Early London: Yen Buying Pauses
After London opened, yen buying began to stabilize.
USD/JPY
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Held around 152.80
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Rebounded toward the 153.30 area
EUR/JPY
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Recovered from around 182.22
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Returned toward the 182.60 zone
This suggests some position adjustment following the sharp yen rally seen in Asia.
🎯 Today’s Main Event: U.S. Employment Report (22:30 JST)
Attention now shifts to the U.S. January employment report, due at 22:30 Japan time.
Market Expectations:
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Unemployment rate: 4.4% (unchanged from prior)
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Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP): +65,000 (prior +50,000)
→ Unemployment steady
→ Slight acceleration in job growth expected
However, the ADP employment report released on the 4th came in below expectations, leaving markets cautious.
Scenario Breakdown
🔵 Weaker-than-expected data
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Increased expectations of earlier Fed rate cuts
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Renewed dollar selling possible
🔴 Stronger-than-expected data
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Confirmation of U.S. economic resilience
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Dollar buying and USD/JPY rebound possible
Today, the key variable is the magnitude of deviation from expectations.
📊 Other Data
Outside the U.S. jobs report, other releases are lower priority:
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U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications
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Canadian Building Permits (December)
The market is effectively a one-event focus environment centered on NFP.
🗣 Speakers & Events
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Cipollone (ECB Executive Board Member)
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Schmid (Kansas City Fed President)
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Bowman (Fed Vice Chair)
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Schnabel (ECB Executive Board Member)
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Hammack (Cleveland Fed President)
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U.S. 10-year Treasury auction ($42bn)
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Bank of Canada meeting minutes
Nevertheless, the jobs report remains the dominant market driver.
🔎 Summary
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Asia saw yen strength driven by short-covering
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London trading showed stabilization
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Market focus is now fully on the U.S. employment report
USD/JPY is currently in a sensitive range:
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Support reaction around the upper-152s
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Resistance test near the low-153s
Tonight’s outcome could determine whether a new directional move emerges.
