📉 U.S. Jobs Miss Stalls Dollar Rally – Markets Enter a Wait-and-See Mode?
✅ Last Week Recap | Surprise NFP Miss Triggers Dollar Selloff
Last week, the dollar enjoyed broad support amid solid U.S. data, including stronger-than-expected GDP and ADP employment numbers. The market priced in a "Fed on hold" scenario, reinforcing the dollar’s bullish trend—particularly against the yen.
However, Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) came in well below expectations, and to make matters worse, the previous two months were significantly revised downward. This triggered a sharp shift in sentiment. Worries over a potential U.S. economic slowdown spread quickly, leading to accelerated dollar selling.
Compounding the issue, renewed suspicions about data manipulation under the Trump administration have started to erode confidence in U.S. economic indicators themselves.
📉 Stock Market Reaction Limited – But Caution Remains
U.S. equities initially dipped in response to the weak NFP report, but hopes for renewed rate cut speculation helped them recover and maintain overall resilience. Futures markets also opened the week in positive territory, suggesting the market isn’t fully risk-off—at least for now.
Still, directional uncertainty lingers, and the market remains in a fog. With few high-impact events scheduled, the path of least resistance may be a consolidation range—especially in FX pairs like USD/JPY.
📅 Key Economic Events This Week (Aug 4 Week)
| Date | Country | Event/Indicator | Focus Level | Expected Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4 | 🇹🇷 Turkey | CPI & PPI (July) | ★★ | Limited spillover; mostly EM local impact |
| Aug 4 | 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Manufacturing PMI (July) | ★ | Swiss franc-specific |
| Aug 5 | 🇺🇸 U.S. | Factory Orders (June) | ★★ | Lagging indicator for overall growth |
| Aug 5 | 🇺🇸 U.S. | Durable Goods Orders – Final (June) | ★ | Likely muted market reaction |
🗣 Other Market Considerations
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Fed Speeches: None scheduled this week (post-blackout period begins next week)
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U.S. Senate: On summer recess (~1 month)
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Earnings: Focus on retailers and food sector (e.g., Lowe’s, Tyson Foods)
📌 Summary: Market May Slip into “Quiet Adjustment Mode”
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Dollar rally on pause: NFP shock + data vacuum = reduced upward momentum
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Risk appetite subdued: Both stocks and FX marked by uncertainty
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Technical trading may prevail: Expect short-term range strategies (e.g., USD/JPY: 148.50–150.00)
