🟦 New Year Opens With Dollar Strength — USD/JPY Hovering Near 157
The first trading session of 2026 has begun quietly — but with a clear bias toward dollar buying.
The firm tone seen into year-end has simply carried over into the new year.
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USD/JPY: pushing into the 157s, testing higher levels
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EUR/USD: softening into the 1.16s
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GBP/USD: pressing toward a break below 1.34
The U.S. Dollar Index has reclaimed its 21-day moving average, hinting that the downtrend since November may be reaching a turning point.
The next key question:
Can the dollar break decisively above its 200-day moving average?
📌 Why the Dollar Is Firm: Rates, Geopolitics, and Japan — All at Once
This bout of dollar strength isn’t the product of a single catalyst — it’s the overlap of multiple themes.
🇺🇸 U.S. side
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10-year Treasury yields rising toward 4.19%
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Heightened tension between the U.S. and Venezuela, with spillover risks in Latin America
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President Trump’s renewed comments regarding Greenland
➡ These dynamics have quietly increased safe-haven demand for the dollar.
🇯🇵 Japan side
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Expectations of continued expansionary fiscal policy
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Selling pressure in JGBs reviving concerns about fiscal sustainability
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Occasional talk of “Japan-risk selling” re-emerging
At the same time, equities remain firm while precious metals continue to climb — a somewhat complicated risk backdrop.
🌍 Next Theme: Political Uncertainty on the International Stage
Heading into overseas trading, focus turns to how global players respond to U.S. diplomacy under the Trump administration:
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EU: likely to adopt a more confrontational posture
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Japan: still searching for a clear stance
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Russia & China: criticism likely to remain mostly rhetorical
A fragmented global response keeps markets nervous and headline-driven.
📅 Key Events Today
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Turkey CPI
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Switzerland: Retail Sales / Manufacturing PMI
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UK: Money Supply / Consumer Credit
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Israel Policy Rate Decision
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U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index
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Forecast: 48.4
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Prior: 48.2
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👉 ISM deserves special attention.
A meaningful deviation from expectations could ignite the dollar right out of the gate in the new year.
🔎 Takeaways
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New year starts with dollar-buying momentum
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USD/JPY consolidating near 157
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Core market drivers: geopolitics × interest rates
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Near-term focus: ISM Manufacturing
Rather than jumping in aggressively, this is a market where:
You build positions only after confirming the data.
A cautious, data-driven approach looks best for the start of 2026.
