🌍 Weekly FX Outlook: Officials’ Remarks Dominate, Dollar Rally in Pause Mode
🌍 Weekly FX Outlook: Officials’ Remarks Dominate, Dollar Rally in Pause Mode
◆ Market Background
The week opened with a calm tone as no major economic data was scheduled. Only a handful of second-tier releases are on tap:
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Turkey Consumer Confidence (Sep)
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Hong Kong CPI (Aug)
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Canada Industrial Product Prices (Aug)
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Eurozone Consumer Confidence (flash, Sep)
None are expected to shift the overall direction of the dollar in a decisive way.
◆ Wave of Central Bank Speeches
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ECB: Escrivá (Spain), Nagel (Germany), Lane (Chief Economist)
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BOE: Pill (Chief Economist), Bailey (Governor)
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Fed: Williams (NY Fed), Musalem (St. Louis Fed), Millan (Governor), Barkin (Richmond Fed), Hummack (Cleveland Fed)
Last week’s FOMC cut rates by 25 bps and signaled two more cuts by year-end. Markets are now pricing in a “consecutive cuts” scenario, and this week’s comments will determine whether that view is reinforced or revised.
◆ Early London Session Moves
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USD/JPY: Fell to 147.82, recovered to ~147.85
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EUR/USD: Rebounded from 1.1726 to 1.1769
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GBP/USD: Rose from 1.3453 to 1.3503
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US 10y yield: Dropped to 4.12%
Bond buying weighed on yields, easing dollar strength. The market is in a mild correction phase after last week’s rally.
◆ Projected Ranges (Weekly Outlook)
| Pair | Range | Key Focus |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 146.50 – 149.50 | FRB officials’ tone, US yields. Intervention watch near 149–150. |
| EUR/USD | 1.1650 – 1.1850 | ECB commentary, US data. Downside remains well supported. |
| GBP/USD | 1.3400 – 1.3650 | UK fiscal risk, CPI, Bailey’s remarks. |
| EUR/JPY | 171.50 – 174.00 | Euro resilience vs yen pressure. Watch 172 downside. |
| GBP/JPY | 197.50 – 202.00 | UK bond yields and risk-off flows. 200 remains a key pivot. |
| AUD/JPY | 95.50 – 98.50 | CPI and jobs data in focus. Moves aligned with USD swings. |
| NZD/JPY | 85.00 – 87.50 | Weak GDP outlook favors selling rallies. |
| CAD/JPY | 105.50 – 108.50 | BOC easing bias keeps rallies capped. |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 3520 – 3650 | Dollar softness + lower yields = bullish. Safe-haven demand supportive. |
⚖️ Summary
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This week opens with a “headline-light but speaker-heavy” setup.
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The dollar rally is in correction mode, with selling pressure dominating short term.
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The tone of remarks from the Fed, ECB, and BOE will be crucial in shaping whether US yields recover or fall further, thereby steering the next leg in FX trends.
