The Market’s Real Attitude in a Flat Tape — Waiting for the Next Trigger
✅ Trading Results (Dec 29 – Jan 2)
📊 Weekly Total: 0 JPY (0 USD)
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Main Account: 0 USD
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Small Account: 0 USD
Summary:
With year-end liquidity extremely thin, the risk-reward simply didn’t justify entries — we finished the period flat (no trades).
📊 FX Market Recap
Review: Dec 29 – Jan 2
— Range-bound markets while traders “wait for confirmation.”
Overall Picture
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USD/JPY: oscillating between 155–157
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EUR/USD: locked in the 1.17s
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GBP/USD: stuck between 1.34–1.35
Trading was dominated by position adjustments, not new ideas.
The key theme:
“What will be the next real driver?”
USD/JPY: BoJ Signals vs CPI — Net Result: Range
BoJ “Summary of Opinions” leaned hawkish, highlighting openness to further hikes.
But:
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Tokyo CPI slowed → rate-hike expectations cooled.
👉 Yen buying and selling offset each other, settling the pair near 156.00.
In the options market, downside hedges toward 150 have quietly increased:
Investors are starting to price a “tail-risk drop.”
U.S. Rates & FOMC — Impact Limited
FOMC minutes:
Additional easing will proceed “gradually.”
Jobless claims and ISM delivered no surprises.
👉 Short-term rate outlook remains uncertain —
And uncertainty = FX stays stuck.
Venezuela Situation — Headlines, Not a Shock
Reports that the U.S. detained Maduro and his wife raised eyebrows —
but market impact is expected to be limited:
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Oil production remains below 1% of global supply
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Operations look targeted, not full-scale conflict
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Markets are already thinking ahead to possible sanctions relief & rebuilding
👉 Shock risk appears contained for now.
EUR & GBP — Political Noise, No Breakout
EUR: fiscal debates in Germany + Ukraine headlines = lots of noise, no direction.
GBP: budget anxiety has eased, but rate-cut expectations cap upside.
👉 Both remain range-bound.
🔮 Looking Ahead (from Jan 5 onward)
Theme: “Jobs × Inflation × The BoJ tone”
⭐ 1) U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls — The Main Event (Jan 9)
Recent pattern:
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Broader unemployment metrics worsening
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But GDP still running above 4%
Market expectations
| Indicator | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Payrolls | +60k |
| Jobless rate | 4.5% |
Reaction Scenarios
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Strong data → rate-cut hopes fade → USD up / JPY down
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Weak data → risk-off → USD selling but JPY likely outperforms
⚠ Expect whipsaws:
Initial spike → quick reversal → then real direction.
⭐ 2) Japan: Real Wages (Nov)
Likely negative for the 11th straight month, though improving slightly.
👉 Weak wage momentum = BoJ remains cautious
→ Yen retains a depreciation bias.
⭐ 3) BoJ Branch Managers’ Meeting
Focus on:
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Corporate pricing behavior
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Spring wage-negotiation outlook
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Regional demand conditions
👉 Hawkish = yen stronger
👉 Cautious = yen weaker
Markets still do not price “immediate” hikes, which matters.
⭐ 4) Australia CPI (Nov)
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Surprise higher → rate-hike talk → AUD stronger
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Soft → AUD weaker
Market is now more sensitive to inflation itself than commodities.
⭐ 5) Eurozone CPI
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Continued declines → reinforces ECB cut expectations → EUR soft
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Upside surprise → short-term EUR bounce only
🧭 Trading View (Game Plan)
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USD/JPY: expected range 155.0–157.8
“Sell rallies, buy dips,” but event risk dominates -
EUR/USD: back-and-forth between 1.16 high–1.18
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GBP/USD: box range centered 1.34
👉 Event management matters more than directional bias.
✅ Bottom Line
Markets are shifting back to data — not geopolitics.
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Venezuela → calmly digested
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Ahead: U.S. jobs, BoJ tone, CPI momentum
👉 A week to search for early signs of the next trend — inside the range.
📜 Afterword — Motivation Isn’t Found. It’s Grown Quietly.
Weight-management articles often sound like “willpower talk.”
But motivation rarely appears magically — it grows from:
Small actions → small wins → wanting to continue.
Exactly like trading.
🏁 Before You Start — People With a “Reason” Don’t Break Easily
Writing down:
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why you want change
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how you want to live
makes you far more resilient — just like traders who know:
“Why am I using this strategy?”
They stay calm through drawdowns.
🚶♂️ Measure the Process, Not Just the Result
Celebrate:
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taking a walk
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skipping late-night snacks
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logging progress for 3 days
Focus on behavioral wins, not only the final number —
the same lesson trading teaches us.
🤝 Systems Beat Willpower
Use:
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tracking apps
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supportive people
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scheduled activities
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expert help
Not to “restrict yourself,”
but to build an environment that protects you.
🌿 Summary
Both dieting and trading involve stumbles. That’s normal.
✔ Don’t beat yourself up
✔ Reset — today
✔ Recognize small progress
Over time, results change quietly — then dramatically.
Next week, focus less on speed and more on direction.
Move at your pace — the quiet, consistent traders are the ones who go farthest.
