+15,732 USD (Approx. ¥2.44M) 🌍 "War Risk" Dominates the Forex Market!
🌍 Geopolitical instability creates trading opportunities — know your currencies (Week of June 16)
✅ Weekly Performance｜June 9–13
💹 +15,732 USD (approx. ¥2.44 million)
Trading started off strong early in the week. However, news of Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities triggered a sharp shift in market sentiment toward risk-off. I responded with a hedge via gold buys, but couldn’t fully ride the rebound, trimming some gains.
📌 Key asset classes likely to be the main battlegrounds going forward:
🛢 Oil
🥇 Gold
🇨🇭 Swiss Franc
💵 US Dollar
Geopolitical risk from the Middle East is a volatility catalyst. This is a prime opportunity for short-term trades — but caution is critical.
🔍 Currency Outlook (Week of June 16)
💵 USD/JPY
Focus centers on 3 major events: G7, FOMC, and the BOJ meeting.
While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, updates to the dot plot and regional Fed data may cause market turbulence.
The BOJ is likely to maintain its easing stance, but changes in bond-buying or FX commentary will be watched.
US CPI for May is forecast at +3.7% YoY — if confirmed, could reignite JPY selling / USD buying.
💶 EUR/USD
Caught between trade friction and Middle East tension.
US tariff threats continue to weigh on the euro.
However, if Mideast risks escalate, we may see USD selling / EUR buying as a risk-off play.
Watch for German ZEW Economic Sentiment (June) — a weak result could sway ECB tone.
💷 GBP/JPY
A "trigger currency" sensitive to data surprises.
BOE is expected to hold rates at the June 19 meeting.
If UK CPI (June 18) surprises to the upside, market expectations for rate cuts later this year could shift.
If wage growth weakens further, rate cuts could resume as early as August.
🇨🇦 CAD/JPY
Weak domestic tone, but highly responsive to US policy.
Canadian housing/retail data are secondary — the main theme is US trade and monetary policy.
Post-NFP calm is apparent, but rising unemployment and tariff concerns weigh on the upside.
🇦🇺 AUD/JPY
One of the most sensitive currencies to US–China trade dynamics.
Trade risks from the G7 and global economic slowdown pressure the Aussie.
Key event: May employment data. A strong result may revive a hawkish outlook.
NZ's current account and GDP will also affect AUD/NZD pairs — watch Oceania correlations.
📌 Weekly Strategy Summary
-
USD/JPY: Wait for clarity post G7/FOMC/BOJ before building positions.
-
EUR/USD: Expect tug-of-war between trade fears and geopolitical risk.
-
GBP/JPY: A CPI surprise could dramatically alter BOE policy outlook.
-
CAD/JPY: Closely tied to USD. Fundamentals remain shaky.
-
AUD/JPY: Most reactive to US–China trade noise. Employment data will be key.
-
ZAR/JPY: High volatility — better suited for short-term scalping than trend following.
📣 With Middle East tension and FOMC colliding this week, any misstep = loss.
Extra caution is warranted when entering or exiting trades.
📘 Postscript｜"How to Stay Grounded Amid Markets & Relationships"
In both trading and relationships, the deeper the involvement, the more likely you are to lose your sense of self.
Especially during volatile weeks like this — with the FOMC and Trump tariff talk stirring emotions — it’s easy to get swept away.
Here are 4 strategies to maintain your inner compass:
🎨 1. Keep a personal hobby
Charts are important, but so is breathing space. Step away with a book, a walk, crafts, or music.
Having your own non-market passion stabilizes your emotions.
👥 2. Maintain relationships beyond your partner
Chat with friends, spend time with family, connect with fellow traders.
A broader world view makes for better, more flexible thinking in trading too.
📍 3. Carve out your own space
Designate “focus time” in front of the screen or create a self-reflection routine at your favorite café.
Having a space that’s yours alone strengthens your personal core.
🗣 4. Speak your truth
Don’t expect others to “read between the lines.” Say what you really think and feel.
Even in trading: before upping your lot size emotionally, ask yourself why you feel that way — and articulate it.
By keeping your identity intact — not bending too much to “the market” or “the other” — you protect the core of your trading spirit.
Love and trading aren't about losing yourself to be together.
Let’s face next week with resilience — and as our true selves.
