Fundamentals Analysis: UoM Consumer Sentiment forecast by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (adapted from the article)
2016-03-18 14:00 GMT | [USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UoM Consumer Sentiment and 11 pips range price movement
EURUSD M5: 11 pips range price movement by UoM Consumer Sentiment news event
Weekly Outlook: 2016, March 20 - 27 (based on the article)
German Ifo Business Climate and Economic Sentiment, Inflation data from the UK, US durable goods orders, Unemployment claims and GDP data. These are the main events on forex calendar.
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GOLD (based on the article)
- "The S&P 500 and other risk-oriented markets have extended a multi-week climb;
but the fundamental backdrop to support the move is more than porous.
Abrupt market moves are more likely to align to risk aversion; and the
Greenback is likely to revert to a more responsive haven status. Risk or
data moves this week however will be tempered somewhat by holiday
trading conditions as March 25 is Good Friday for many markets."
EUR/USD - "Next week is devoid of high-importance news
events out of Europe, but there are numerous medium and low-importance
announcements on the docket. The highlights are German data on Tuesday,
both the IFO and the German Zew Survey, while Wednesday brings consumer
confidence numbers and Thursday brings PMI’s for the Euro-Zone, France
and Germany. Each of these could be market moving, but given that much
of this data was compiled before the announcement of Mr. Draghi, expect
down-side prints to be somewhat muted while top-side data gets
accentuated by markets."
GBP/USD - "In turn, a slew of positive U.K. data prints
accompanied by waning U.S. interest-rate expectations may fuel a further
short-squeeze in GBP/USD as there appears to be a shift in market
AUD/USD - "The correlation between the currency and the S&P 500
stock index – a benchmark for market-wide risk trends – remains
elevated at 0.92 on rolling 20-day studies. Alternatively, upbeat
outcomes may yield the opposite dynamic."
NZD/USD - "Considering the upcoming data, NZD/USD may
continue to advance into the December high (0.6882), and the key
developments coming out of New Zealand’s construction, retail spending
and business services could make up for the drop in Dairy exports. If
the New Zealand economy remains stable at the same time that the U.S.
Dollar goes without a bid, we could soon move closer to 0.7000."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "From a technical standpoint, gold is trading at some tricky levels
as the pair struggles to solidify a break above a parallel extending
off the 2015 October high as momentum continues to hold below the
70-threshold. The risk remains for a pullback in price with interim
support eyed at 1246/50 backed by soft support at 1225 & our bullish invalidation level at 1194.
We’ll be looking for move lower towards these levels to offer favorable
long-entries with a breach of the highs targeting the 2015 high-week
close backed at 1294 closely by the 2015 high-day close at 1301. Subsequent topside targets are eyed at the 2014 high week reversal close at 1293."
Trading News Events: U.K. Consumer Price Index (based on the article)
Why Is This Event Important:
The BoE looks poised to retain its current policy ahead of the U.K.
Referendum in June as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) remains
unanimous in keeping the benchmark interest rate at the record-low, but
signs of stronger price growth may encourage Governor Mark Carney to
adopt a more hawkish tone over the coming months as the central bank
sees a risk of overshooting the 2% inflation-target over the policy
Nevertheless, waning confidence paired with fears surrounding the U.K.
Referendum may drag on inflation, and signs of easing price growth may
produce near-term headwinds for the sterling as market participants push
out bets for a BoE rate-hike.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Meet/Beat Market Forecast
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and 42 pips price movement
2016-03-22 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
GBPUSD M5: 42 pips price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event
Technical Setups for EUR/USD by Barclays (based on the article)
EUR/USD: daily correction to possible bearish reversal
is located above 200-day SMA for
the primary bullish market condition with the secondary correction: the
price is on local downtrend within the primary bullish with 1.1145 as the nearest target and 1.1057 as the key bearish reversal target.
RSI indicator is estimating the secondary correction to be continuing.
Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
GBP/USD: ranging bearish within 1.40/1.45 area
is located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for
the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging within 1.4052 support level and 1.4535 resistance level.
RSI indicator is estimating the secondary ranging to be continuing.
Technical Targets for USD/JPY by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
USD/JPY: back to 110.66
is located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for
the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging within 110.66 support level and 113.81 resistance level.
GOLD (XAU/USD) Intra-Day Fundamentals: EIA Crude Stocks and 337 pips price movement
2016-03-23 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]
[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.
"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 9.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 532.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at hisorically high levels for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 0.3 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 6.9 million barrels last week."
XAUUSD M5: 337 pips price movement by EIA Crude Stocks news event