Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 13

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.10 12:15

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Trade Balance and 13 pips range price movement

2016-03-10 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

"The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 13.6 billion euros in January 2016. In January 2015, the surplus amounted to +15.9 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 18.9 billion euros in January 2016."

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EURUSD M5: 13 pips range price movement by German Trade Balance news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.10 14:20

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: European Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate and 131 pips price movement

2016-03-10 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

==========

"At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB took the following monetary policy decisions:

(1) The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.00%, starting from the operation to be settled on 16 March 2016.

(2) The interest rate on the marginal lending facility will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.25%, with effect from 16 March 2016.

(3) The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to -0.40%, with effect from 16 March 2016."

==========

EURUSD M5: 131 pips price movement by European Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate news event :



Sergey Golubev
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EUR/USD: End Of Week Technicals - Bullish Reversal

Daily price broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA area yesterday for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition:

  • The price crossed 100-day SMA/200-day SMA and was bounced from 1.1217 resistance level.
  • 100 SMA is below 200 SMA for the ranging condition to be started.
  • RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend in the near future.

If the price breaks Fibo support level at 1.0821 so the daily bearish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks Fibo resistance level at 1.1217 to above on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1.1217 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0821 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish


Resistance
 Support
1.12171.0821
1.12171.0821

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.12 09:36

3 Main Themes To Watch In Next Week FOMC - Bank of America Merrill Lynch (the article)

Three main themes at the March FOMC meeting.

  • "First, there is a likely to still be a sense of caution hanging over the meeting, helping to justify why the Fed did not hike. The sharp tightening of financial conditions has started to ease and market nervousness over the global growth backdrop has abated, but we expect the FOMC statement will continue to state that the Committee is still closely monitoring global developments and will not reintroduce a balance of risks assessment. Similarly, uncertainty about the near-term inflation outlook – notably a drop in oil prices and inflation expectations, but a strong set of inflation data prints for February – also is likely to keep the Fed cautiously on hold for now."
  • "Second, we look for some signs of optimism in the discussion of the outlook going forward, supporting additional hikes later this year. We expect the updated dot plot will show a median three hikes for this year (with a number at two hikes) and four for 2017. In this sense, not hiking in March is similar to last September’s “tactical delay” of liftoff. The opening paragraph of the statement and Yellen’s subsequent comments should note that the US data recently have shown improvement on net. April should remain a “live” meeting – likely noted by Yellen in her press conference."
  • "Third, we do not expect significant changes to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), in line with a “tactical delay.” There may be some tweaking of the near-term forecasts: we see some chance of slightly lower 2016 GDP growth; a smaller chance of a slight upward revision to 2016 inflation rates. However, we see a high likelihood that the median long-run dot will decline to 3.25% and a good chance that the central tendency for the longer-run GDP growth rate will come down modestly, reflecting disappointing productivity growth over the past few years. We also see some chance that the longer-run unemployment rate projection could move slightly lower."

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.14 10:44

EUR/USD: We maintains a long EUR/USD from 1.1140 targeting a move to 1.1370, with a stop at 1.1058 - Credit Suisse (based on the article)


  • "We look for further strength towards gap and 78.6% retracement resistance spanning from 1.1230 to 1.1256/59."
  • "Above here can then target the February high at 1.1376 where we would expect fresh selling to show. Immediate support moves towards 1.1136, with the top of the base at 1.1068/58 ideally holding."

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.14 16:31

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Euro-Zone Industrial Production and 14 pips price movement

2016-03-14 10:00 GMT | [EUR - Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

==========

"In January 2016 compared with December 2015, seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 2.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 1.7% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In December 2015 industrial production fell by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.6 in the EU28."

==========

EURUSD M5: 14 pips price movement by Euro-Zone Industrial Production news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.15 07:36

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: bounced from 1.1217 for intra-day correction

H4 price is located above 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary correction: the price was bounced from 1.1217 resistance level to start to be ranging above 200 SMA bullish area.

  • "While we turned bullish EUR, the upside potential is likely limited to 1.1245. The current movement is a short-term consolidation and this should lead to an eventual move higher in the next few days."

RSI indicator is estimating the bullish ranging to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1217 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.1077 support on close H4 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition may be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.12171.1077
N/AN/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1077 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1217 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish

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The price is ranging within the following breakout/breakdown levels before U.S. Retail Sales news event:

  • 1.1115 resistance level for possible buy stop order;
  • 1.1070 support level for the possible sell stop order to be placed.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.15 13:54

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Advance Retail Sales and 14 pips range price movement

2016-03-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

EURUSD M5: 14 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.16 13:41

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Consumer Price Index and 20 pips price movement

2016-03-16 12:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.0%
  • forecast data is -0.2%
  • actual data is -0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.0 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EURUSD M5: 20 pips price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event :



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