USD, EUR, CAD, AUD, NZD For The Coming Week by Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)
Morgan Stanley is continuing weekly forecast for the pairs based on
fundamental analysis related to the direction of the trading.
USD: Bullish."We see scope for USD strength to continue. However, we distinguish
between the performance of USD against low yielding funding currencies,
where we see less scope for depreciation, and against commodity
currencies and EM, where we expect strength to be focused. Even the
risks of a more dovish Fed are unlikely to drive USD to depreciate
against this latter group of currencies, as growth prospects in the rest
of the world remain below those of the US."
EUR: Bullish."We see scope for EUR to make further gains over the next few weeks as
risk remains bid amidst an environment of uncertainty. EUR was used as a
funding currency for many risk-on trades; as these are unwound the
currency should see support. The main risk from our bullish EUR view
stems from the upcoming ECB meeting, where there is a risk of a more
dovish tone from the central bank in light of recent currency
CAD: Bearish."Bearish CAD is one of our higher conviction trades in G10. We believe
that there is a risk the central bank will need to take a more dovish
tone, weighing on the currency. Latest comments from the BoC that
macroprudential tools are addressing financial instability suggest that
monetary policy will be free to focus on low growth and inflation. An
environment of weak oil prices is unlikely to offer support to CAD as
AUD: Bearish."A weak commodity picture and concerns about growth in Asia are likely
to weigh on AUD in the near term, and we would expect it to continue to
underperform. Ongoing weakness in capex highlights the risks surrounding
the currency. The main upside risks stem from the central bank, which
has been more hawkish, most recently highlighting the risks of running
easy monetary policy for too long. We will watch the upcoming RBA
"With macro prudential measures expected to further reduce heightened
financial system risk and help moderate the Auckland housing market, the
RBNZ has left the door open for more significant easing. Weak
commodities prices, a struggling dairy sector, and soft global demand
should weigh on the small, open New Zealand economy. We expect NZD to
continue depreciating as both growth and rate differentials move against
Where To Buy? - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)
CS runs a limit order to buy EUR/USD at 1.1108, with a stop at 1.1018 and a target at 1.1520.
EUR/USD To Recover Friday Losses (based on actionforex article)
EURUSD back above 1.1200 after probe below (based on forexlive article)
Non-Farm Payrolls: actual data forecasting related to September hike - BNP Paribas (based on efxnews article)
2015-09-04 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Payrolls]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Payrolls] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Paribas made the comments on Friday's NFP related to September Fed hike
and actual data forecasting. As we know - the forecast data is 220K,
and if actual data is more than 220K for example so the USD to be more
stronger in this case. Concerning EUR/USD, we can see that it may be
bearish condition to be ibncrease for this pair during and immediate
after this high impacted news event:
What Fed Officials Are Saying About a September Rate Increase (based on wsj article)
"Federal Reserve officials made clear in recent days they have not agreed
on when to start raising short-term interest rates, and the possibility
of a September move remains on the table. The odds of a rate increase
next month have appeared to diminish
amid worries about China’s economic slowdown and turmoil in financial
markets. Some officials want to see more economic data before deciding,
while others think they’ve waited long enough. The most powerful
decision maker, Chairwoman Janet Yellen, has not commented on the topic
in the past few days. Here are some key quotes from those who have."
Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, AUD/USD - UBS (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: "has traded bid since yesterday and it looks
like 1.1200 is going to act as a base. We expect selling interest to
show up on any move closer to 1.1400, so play the intraday moves and
fade a 70 to 80 pip move in either direction, with stops at 1.1150 and
AUD/USD: "continues to trade sideways.We still see
AUDUSD heading lower, but are a bit cautious as the pair seems to
struggle below 0.7100. This could be due to seasonal demand, and we will
have to see if the sharp bounce in oil will support other commodities.
Sell rallies between 0.7180 and 0.7250, with a stop above 0.7325."
Gold Prices Higher as Possible Fed Rate Rise Seen Later (based on wsj article)
Deutsche Bank: bullish condition for EUR/USD during and immediate after NFP (based on efxnews article)
Paribas made the forecast for NFP to be more than 220K on Friday: "Our economists expect an above-consensus 230K increase in jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 5.3%."
By the way, Deutsche Bank is expecting for NFP to be significantly below 220K expectation:
So, we can expect the following concerning EUR/USD for example:
Trade Ideas For EUR/USD by UBS (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: "The market seems rangy and uncertain at the
moment, but the ECB meeting on Thursday and US jobless figures on Friday
may provide some clarity. Fade 70 to 80 pip moves in either direction
today, with stops at 1.1145 and 1.1425."
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