if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
Retail Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall on Broad-Based Drop
"Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly dropped in June, curbing
optimism about the strength of the rebound in consumer spending during
the second quarter."
"Purchases decreased 0.3 percent after a 1 percent advance in May that
was smaller than previously reported, Commerce Department figures
showed Tuesday in Washington. The median forecast of 82 economists
surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.3 percent gain. Eight of 13 major
retail categories showed declines in demand."
EURUSD M5: 43 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event:
Fundamental Forecast - 'What Will Draghi Say?' - Citibank (based on efxnews article)
Citibank provided some forecasts concerning fundamental news events
on Thursday related to ECB meeting and potential EUR reaction. Citi
described it on 4 points to be mention:
Chair Yellen will present the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday so this is the expectation of 10 major banks:
AUDIO - Global Currencies with Merlin Rothfeld (based on fxstreet article)
With no guest on the show, Merlin answers many listener questions
that were Power Blasted into the studio! With obvious focus on the
Greek situation, Merlin starts off by answering a question about how to
trade that volatile situation. Later he looks at the Canadian dollar,
British Pound New Zealand pair, the Yen, and several other currencies.
Quant Signals For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, & Other Majors - Barclays (based on efxnews article)
The latest signals from Barclays Capital 'FX Quantitative Analyzer' model:
5 Reasons Why EUR/USD Shorts Are Attractive Again - BNPP (based on efxnews article)
BNP Paribas maintains short position for EURUSD from early this week
from 1.1025 with 1.05 as a target, and those are 5 reasons about why this bank is considering the short for this pair:
Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on dailyfx article)
A meaningful pickup in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may boost the
appeal of the greenback and spur fresh monthly lows in EUR/USD as it
fuels speculation for a Fed rate hike in 2015.
Why Is This Event Important:
Signs of stronger price growth may encourage the Fed to adopt a more
hawkish tone for monetary policy, and we may see a growing number of
central bank officials show a greater willingness to remove the
zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) later this year as Chair Janet Yellen
remains confident in achieving the 2% target for inflation over the
However, waning business confidence paired with the weakness in
private-sector consumption may continue to drag on price growth, and a
dismal CPI print may generate a near-term rebound in EUR/USD as it drags
on interest rate expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Headline & Core CPI Picks Up in June
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2015.07.17
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 22 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event
USDJPY, M5, 2015.07.17
USDJPY M5: 19 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event
Forex Weekly Outlook July 20-24 (based on forexcrunch article)
A Greek deal was finally reached, but it didn’t help the euro. In general, the dollar enjoyed broad gains. The upcoming week features housing figures in the US as well as important events for the antipodean currencies. Here are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on these main events.
An “aGreekment” was reached in the early hours of Monday with a Greek capitulation on austerity after Grexit was put on the table. We are seeing signs of a return to normality but with so much bad blood, nobody is really happy and the euro is lower. The crisis could take a break before making a comeback. Elsewhere, the dollar saw mixed numbers, with poor retail sales weighing. However, some better numbers and with a repeat of Yellen’s intention to raise rates this year, the dollar emerged as a winner especially against commodity currencies. USD/CAD touched 1.30, AUD/USD reached new lows despite OK Chinese GDP and NZD/USD fell below the post crisis low. The only currency that beat the dollar quite nicely is the pound, thanks to hawkish comments by Carney. What’s next? Let’s start:
'EURUSD would trade down to about .9840 in August before trading back to 1.1450+' (based on dailyfx article)
W1 price is located below 200 period SMA
and below 100 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition with secondary ranging between 1.0461 support
level and 1.1466 resistance level:
Morgan Stanley - Outlooks For The Coming Week (based on efxnews article)