ACTIONS news, forecasts, expectations 2022 - page 79
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Not exactly a forecast, but purely a projection from the past: the depreciation of the national currency was +133% to USDRUB last time after a breakdown to the brink, and assuming the strength of the impact on markets will be the same (if what-is-impossible-to-name happens) then the next range can be estimated almost exactly under 200 at the peak of panic and around 140 on the pullback...
Rosbudget is highly sensitive to the barrel price in rubles - quite a comfortable range of 4000-6000. Even on reports of the start of strikes alone, oil has climbed towards $100. In response to the obvious tough economic restraints on Russia, retaliatory measures will naturally follow - the most obvious being restrictions on energy exports. The barrel price will most likely rise above $120, so at $100 rouble/$ a barrel in roubles would be 12000.
Judging by history, Nabiulina is a reinsurer, at the slightest threat of a breakdown into inflation - she raises the rates at an advanced rate, respectively, non-residents will sit in OFZ-bills by all means, especially they are not so much in the percentage ratio.
Russia has a sizable cushion to live on the domestic reserves for some time. In summary: the dollar is unlikely to go above 100, unless very briefly on a panicsell wave.
This should have been introduced before the holiday, otherwise it's already gone to the bar since the opening.
Yeah, I've been watching that too.
I am an investor, I am stuck in buying. :) I don't want to sell at a loss. I don't indulge in short selling. I even turned off margin trading in all my accounts. I should have hedged with futures.
What's the timeline? Couple of weeks or months? The Sellpanic will not last forever either, but a comeback under pressure even in the medium term is unlikely. Judging by the rhetoric the rate to 100 is a positive outcome)))
It grows very slowly as a rule, but falls quickly. Now I estimate that everything that has grown in the last three years is gone.
Sberbank is already included in the sanctions, radio FM.
The Central Bank has banned sales.